Software Earnings Lift Nasdaq, S&P 500 Adds 0.4%

We said

SPX up 0.40% (58% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX fell 0.25%, closing at 7711.76. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.25% @ 7711.76

We said

NDX up 0.60% (59% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX fell 0.70%, closing at 29433.43. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.70% @ 29433.43

We said

DJI up 0.30% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI fell 0.02%, closing at 53559.99. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.02% @ 53559.99

We said

RUT up 0.20% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT fell 1.39%, closing at 2972.37. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.39% @ 2972.37

We said

VIX down 2.50% (41% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX fell 0.55%, closing at 14.43. Right direction, off by 1.95 percentage points on size.

Result -0.55% @ 14.43

We said

DXY up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY rose 0.52%, closing at 99.67. Right direction, off by 0.52 percentage points on size.

Result +0.52% @ 99.67

We said

US10Y down 0.40% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 1.03%, closing at 4.72. We called the wrong direction.

Result +1.03% @ 4.72

We said

CL up 1.00% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

CL fell 0.11%, closing at 83.44. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.11% @ 83.44

We said

GC up 0.70% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

GC fell 2.29%, closing at 4504.00. We called the wrong direction.

Result -2.29% @ 4504.00

We said

SI up 0.90% (54% odds it rises)

What happened

SI fell 3.49%, closing at 67.00. We called the wrong direction.

Result -3.49% @ 67.00

We said

BTC up 0.30% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC fell 3.66%, closing at 77319.99. We called the wrong direction.

Result -3.66% @ 77319.99

We said

ETH up 0.40% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH fell 3.41%, closing at 2424.84. We called the wrong direction.

Result -3.41% @ 2424.84

We said

NG up 1.50% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

NG fell 1.03%, closing at 2.88. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.03% @ 2.88

We said

Buy NA at 2.12, take profit 2.32, cut it at 1.97

What happened

NA traded 1.82–2.36 and closed 2.22. It hit our 1.97 exit first — the trade lost -7.08%.

Result -7.08% @ 2.22

We said

Buy CHA at 10.44, take profit 11, cut it at 10.01

What happened

CHA traded 10.20–10.80 and closed 10.80. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +3.45%.

Result +3.45% @ 10.80

We said

Buy MSFT at 504.48, take profit 520.47, cut it at 492.18

What happened

MSFT traded 504.87–517.78 and closed 513.53. The price never reached our 504.48 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 513.53

We said

Buy IGV at 109.45, take profit 113.74, cut it at 106.15

What happened

IGV traded 108.24–110.49 and closed 109.50. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.05%.

Result +0.05% @ 109.50

We said

Buy XLE at 62.29, take profit 64.22, cut it at 60.8

What happened

XLE traded 62.12–62.74 and closed 62.68. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.63%.

Result +0.63% @ 62.68

We said

Buy CRM at 252.33, take profit 269.26, cut it at 239.3

What happened

CRM traded 249.00–263.53 and closed 256.00. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.45%.

Result +1.45% @ 256.00

We said

Buy GC=F at 4657.3, take profit 4776.99, cut it at 4565.32

What happened

GC=F traded 4495.00–4688.00 and closed 4504.00. It hit our 4565.32 exit first — the trade lost -1.97%.

Result -1.98% @ 4504.00

We said

Buy NG=F at 2.9, take profit 3.07, cut it at 2.77

What happened

NG=F traded 2.84–2.93 and closed 2.88. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.79%.

Result -0.79% @ 2.88

We said

Short BLPG at 0.055, take profit 0.0516, cut it at 0.0576

What happened

BLPG traded 0.05–0.05 and closed 0.05. The price never reached our 0.055 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 0.06

We said

Short BZYR at 0.009, take profit 0.0085, cut it at 0.0094

What happened

BZYR traded 0.01–0.01 and closed 0.01. The price never reached our 0.009 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 0.01

We said

NA (NA) will close up at least 3% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

CHA (CHA) will trade up at least 2% following its earnings release.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Technology sector will be the top-performing S&P 500 sector.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Microsoft (MSFT) will close higher by at least 0.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Oracle (ORCL) will trade up by at least 1%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Adobe (ADBE) will gain at least 0.7%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Salesforce (CRM) shares will increase by 0.6% or more.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) will gain more than 1%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

IBM (IBM) will close flat or higher by 0.2%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

AUSI (AUSI) will trade flat to slightly positive after its earnings.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Gold prices (GC) will rise above $2,100 per ounce.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

US Crude Oil (CL) will close above $75 per barrel.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) will gain at least 0.8%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Bitcoin (BTC) will see trading volume below its 30-day average.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The small-cap software company UTSI (UTSI) will see a quiet session with minimal movement.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

NA (NA) will close up at least 3% tomorrow.

What happened

We said NA would be a winner. It closed +4.72% while the S&P 500 did -0.25%.

Result +4.72% @ 2.22

We said

CHA (CHA) will trade up at least 2% following its earnings release.

What happened

We said CHA would be a winner. It closed +4.35% while the S&P 500 did -0.25%.

Result +4.35% @ 10.80

We said

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) will gain more than 1%.

What happened

We said ETF would be a winner. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did -0.25%.

Result 0.00%

We said

BLPG (BLPG) shares will fall by at least 1.5% after its earnings.

What happened

We said BLPG would be a loser. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did -0.25%.

Result 0.00% @ 0.06

We said

BZYR (BZYR) stock will decline by at least 1% following its report.

What happened

We said BZYR would be a loser. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did -0.25%.

Result 0.00% @ 0.01

We said

The VIX (VIX) will close down more than 2%.

What happened

We said VIX would be a loser. It closed -0.55% while the S&P 500 did -0.25%.

Result -0.55% @ 14.43

We said

NA (NA) will move at least 4% in either direction after earnings.

What happened

We said NA would swing hard (3%+). It moved +4.72%.

Result +4.72% @ 2.22

We said

CHA (CHA) will experience a price swing of at least 3% following its report.

What happened

We said CHA would swing hard (3%+). It moved +4.35%.

Result +4.35% @ 10.80

We said

Natural Gas (NG) will move by more than 2.5%.

What happened

We said NG would swing hard (3%+). It moved -1.03%.

Result -1.03% @ 2.88

We said

BANX (BANX) will announce a major strategic partnership, driving its stock up over 5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The US10Y Treasury yield will drop by more than 5 basis points.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Oil (CL) prices will fall below $72 per barrel on unexpected supply news.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

BACK (BACK) earnings report will lead to a mixed market reaction, with the stock trading in a narrow range.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The overall market reaction to US-China trade rhetoric will be muted.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Cryptocurrency markets (BTC, ETH) will continue their low-conviction drift with limited direction.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

China Economy pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.25%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Employment Data pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.25%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Earnings Season pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.25%. That went against the call.

We said

Middle East Geopolitics pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.25%. That went against the call.

We said

Fed Policy Outlook pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.25%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Treasury Yields pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.25%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

AI Spending pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.25%. That went against the call.

We said

Consumer Spending pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.25%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Oil Prices pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.25%. That went against the call.

We said

Inflation Expectations pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.25%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

NA earnings on 2026-08-28: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

CHA: we said inline (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

CHA came in above expectations (2.65 vs 1.8993 expected). We said inline.

We said

BLPG earnings on 2026-08-28: we leaned beat (56% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

BZYR earnings on 2026-08-28: we leaned beat (54% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

AUSI earnings on 2026-08-28: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

UTSI: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

UTSI came in below expectations (-0.4 vs -0.1224 expected). We said beat.

We said

BACK: we said beat (60% odds of a beat)

What happened

BACK came in below expectations (-1.38 vs -0.8874 expected). We said beat.

We said

BANX: we said beat (59% odds of a beat)

What happened

BANX came in below expectations (0.53 vs 0.5406 expected). We said beat.