Yields Reassert Their Gravity on Equities

We said

SPX down 0.40% (40% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX rose 0.72%, closing at 7730.99. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.72% @ 7730.99

We said

NDX down 0.80% (35% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX rose 1.43%, closing at 29641.56. We called the wrong direction.

Result +1.43% @ 29641.56

We said

DJI down 0.20% (45% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI rose 0.20%, closing at 53569.44. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.20% @ 53569.44

We said

RUT down 0.60% (40% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT rose 0.28%, closing at 3014.34. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.28% @ 3014.34

We said

VIX up 3.50% (60% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX fell 4.60%, closing at 14.51. We called the wrong direction.

Result -4.60% @ 14.51

We said

DXY up 0.20% (60% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY fell 0.03%, closing at 99.14. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.03% @ 99.14

We said

US10Y up 0.05% (70% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 0.17%, closing at 4.67. Right direction, off by 0.12 percentage points on size.

Result +0.17% @ 4.67

We said

CL up 0.70% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

CL rose 1.64%, closing at 83.58. Right direction, off by 0.94 percentage points on size.

Result +1.64% @ 83.58

We said

GC down 0.50% (40% odds it rises)

What happened

GC rose 1.32%, closing at 4658.70. We called the wrong direction.

Result +1.32% @ 4658.70

We said

SI down 0.70% (38% odds it rises)

What happened

SI rose 3.10%, closing at 70.10. We called the wrong direction.

Result +3.10% @ 70.10

We said

BTC down 1.20% (40% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC rose 1.23%, closing at 79999.99. We called the wrong direction.

Result +1.23% @ 79999.99

We said

ETH down 1.50% (38% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH fell 0.07%, closing at 2504.48. Right direction, off by 1.43 percentage points on size.

Result -0.07% @ 2504.48

We said

NG up 1.10% (60% odds it rises)

What happened

NG rose 2.22%, closing at 2.90. Right direction, off by 1.12 percentage points on size.

Result +2.22% @ 2.90

We said

Short NVDA at 206.99, take profit 201.82, cut it at 209.06

What happened

NVDA traded 220.90–230.47 and closed 227.98. It hit our 209.06 exit first — the trade lost -1.00%.

Result -1.00% @ 227.98

We said

Short AFRM at 76.75, take profit 73.68, cut it at 78.28

What happened

AFRM traded 75.41–78.20 and closed 77.49. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.96%.

Result -0.96% @ 77.49

We said

Short WDAY at 190.75, take profit 185.03, cut it at 193.93

What happened

WDAY traded 189.79–199.40 and closed 193.57. It hit our 193.93 exit first — the trade lost -1.67%.

Result -1.67% @ 193.57

We said

Short MRVL at 245.94, take profit 237.33, cut it at 251

What happened

MRVL traded 240.38–254.58 and closed 241.45. It hit our 251 exit first — the trade lost -2.06%.

Result -2.06% @ 241.45

We said

Short BBY at 88.59, take profit 86.38, cut it at 90.06

What happened

BBY traded 76.70–84.65 and closed 83.56. The price never reached our 88.59 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 83.56

We said

Short DG at 122.4, take profit 119.95, cut it at 124.03

What happened

DG traded 124.50–132.50 and closed 125.89. It hit our 124.03 exit first — the trade lost -1.33%.

Result -1.33% @ 125.89

We said

Short SPG at 217.11, take profit 212.77, cut it at 219.82

What happened

SPG traded 214.18–216.22 and closed 214.89. The price never reached our 217.11 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 214.89

We said

Buy XOM at 158.38, take profit 160.76, cut it at 157.19

What happened

XOM traded 156.14–158.14 and closed 156.44. It hit our 157.19 exit first — the trade lost -0.75%.

Result -0.75% @ 156.44

We said

Buy CVX at 200.21, take profit 203.21, cut it at 198.54

What happened

CVX traded 197.82–200.87 and closed 199.77. It hit our 198.54 exit first — the trade lost -0.83%.

Result -0.83% @ 199.77

We said

Buy LMT at 565.62, take profit 575.8, cut it at 559.63

What happened

LMT traded 560.02–566.03 and closed 565.89. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.05%.

Result +0.05% @ 565.89

We said

The US 10-year Treasury yield will close above its previous day's high.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector, will underperform value stocks.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The US Dollar Index (DXY) will trade higher on the day.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Oil prices (WTI) will increase as geopolitical tensions remain a factor.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Shares of Affirm (AFRM) will decline by more than 5% after its earnings report.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The VIX Index will finish the session higher.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Gold prices will fall as real yields climb.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields will remain inverted.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Workday (WDAY) will see its stock trade lower following its earnings release.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Consumer Discretionary sector will be one of the worst-performing sectors.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Durable Goods Orders data will show a modest increase.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Bilibili (BILI) shares will decline post-earnings due to concerns about China's economy.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Healthcare sector will demonstrate relative outperformance.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Marvell Technology (MRVL) will see its stock dip despite a potential beat, due to valuation concerns.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The 2-year Treasury yield will rise alongside the 10-year, maintaining upward pressure on the short end.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Long Chevron (CVX) as oil prices remain supported by geopolitical concerns.

What happened

We said CVX would be a winner. It closed -0.22% while the S&P 500 did +0.72%.

Result -0.22% @ 199.77

We said

Long ExxonMobil (XOM) on robust commodity prices and dividend appeal.

What happened

We said XOM would be a winner. It closed -1.11% while the S&P 500 did +0.72%.

Result -1.11% @ 156.44

We said

Long Lockheed Martin (LMT) due to increased defense spending outlook.

What happened

We said LMT would be a winner. It closed +0.05% while the S&P 500 did +0.72%.

Result +0.05% @ 565.89

We said

Long General Dynamics (GD) as defense budgets expand.

What happened

We said GD would be a winner. It closed -0.51% while the S&P 500 did +0.72%.

Result -0.51% @ 380.06

We said

Long Southern Company (SO) as utilities offer defensive characteristics.

What happened

We said SO would be a winner. It closed -0.79% while the S&P 500 did +0.72%.

Result -0.79% @ 89.05

We said

Long NextEra Energy (NEE) as investors seek reliable dividend payers.

What happened

We said NEE would be a winner. It closed -0.89% while the S&P 500 did +0.72%.

Result -0.89% @ 83.47

We said

Long Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) on defensive healthcare demand.

What happened

We said REGN would be a winner. It closed -0.87% while the S&P 500 did +0.72%.

Result -0.87% @ 807.71

We said

Long Amgen (AMGN) as a defensive pharmaceutical giant.

What happened

We said AMGN would be a winner. It closed -0.76% while the S&P 500 did +0.72%.

Result -0.76% @ 436.99

We said

Long Walmart (WMT) as a consumer staple with pricing power.

What happened

We said WMT would be a winner. It closed -1.64% while the S&P 500 did +0.72%.

Result -1.64% @ 102.63

We said

Long Coca-Cola (KO) for its recession-resistant demand and dividend yield.

What happened

We said KO would be a winner. It closed -1.13% while the S&P 500 did +0.72%.

Result -1.13% @ 89.06

We said

Short Tesla (TSLA) on sensitivity to higher interest rates impacting auto demand.

What happened

We said TSLA would be a loser. It closed +2.60% while the S&P 500 did +0.72%.

Result +2.60% @ 354.81

We said

Short Nvidia (NVDA) due to its high valuation and sensitivity to rising discount rates.

What happened

We said NVDA would be a loser. It closed +8.74% while the S&P 500 did +0.72%.

Result +8.74% @ 227.98

We said

Short Coinbase (COIN) as crypto weakness and rate sensitivity persist.

What happened

We said COIN would be a loser. It closed +4.92% while the S&P 500 did +0.72%.

Result +4.92% @ 190.72

We said

Short DoorDash (DASH) on discretionary spending slowdown and competitive pressures.

What happened

We said DASH would be a loser. It closed -2.13% while the S&P 500 did +0.72%.

Result -2.13% @ 231.89

We said

Short Shopify (SHOP) due to impact of higher rates on SMB spending and growth multiples.

What happened

We said SHOP would be a loser. It closed +2.69% while the S&P 500 did +0.72%.

Result +2.69% @ 154.33

We said

Short Rivian Automotive (RIVN) as electric vehicle demand cools with higher rates.

What happened

We said RIVN would be a loser. It closed +2.88% while the S&P 500 did +0.72%.

Result +2.88% @ 16.80

We said

Short Block Inc. (SQ) on fintech valuation concerns and rate sensitivity.

What happened

We said SQ would be a loser. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did +0.72%. It beat the market but not the direction, so we call it a wash.

Result 0.00%

We said

Short Zillow Group (Z) on housing market headwinds from elevated mortgage rates.

What happened

We said Z would be a loser. It closed +1.37% while the S&P 500 did +0.72%.

Result +1.37% @ 35.43

We said

Short Salesforce (CRM) as enterprise software spending faces scrutiny amid economic uncertainty.

What happened

We said CRM would be a loser. It closed +22.58% while the S&P 500 did +0.72%.

Result +22.58% @ 252.05

We said

Short Chewy (CHWY) on discretionary pet spending weakness and competitive pressures.

What happened

We said CHWY would be a loser. It closed -0.74% while the S&P 500 did +0.72%.

Result -0.74% @ 22.80

We said

Affirm (AFRM) will experience significant price swings post-earnings due to conflicting signals on consumer credit and transaction volumes.

What happened

We said AFRM would swing hard (3%+). It moved +1.35%.

Result +1.35% @ 77.49

We said

Marvell Technology (MRVL) will be highly volatile after earnings as investors weigh AI tailwinds against valuation and general tech sector weakness.

What happened

We said MRVL would swing hard (3%+). It moved -1.49%.

Result -1.49% @ 241.45

We said

Workday (WDAY) will see increased trading ranges following its report, as software growth forecasts battle higher discount rates.

What happened

We said WDAY would swing hard (3%+). It moved +1.48%.

Result +1.48% @ 193.57

We said

Best Buy (BBY) stock will move sharply following its pre-market earnings, reflecting consumer electronics demand uncertainty.

What happened

We said BBY would swing hard (3%+). It moved -4.44%.

Result -4.44% @ 83.56

We said

Dollar General (DG) will exhibit notable price movement after its results, as discounter performance is closely watched for consumer health signals.

What happened

We said DG would swing hard (3%+). It moved +2.53%.

Result +2.53% @ 125.89

We said

A surprisingly weak Durable Goods Orders report could temporarily stall the rise in Treasury yields.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Bilibili (BILI) reports stronger-than-expected user growth, leading to a temporary bounce despite broader China concerns.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The US Dollar Index (DXY) unexpectedly declines despite rising US yields, driven by sudden strength in other major currencies.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The market's reaction to the Durable Goods Orders print will be highly ambiguous, with conflicting interpretations for both equities and rates.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The exact extent of margin pressure on technology companies, even those beating revenue estimates, will lead to mixed post-earnings reactions.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The impact of rising oil prices on broader inflation expectations will remain unclear, contributing to rate market volatility.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Treasury Yields pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.72%. That went against the call.

We said

Inflation Outlook pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.72%. That went against the call.

We said

Geopolitical Tensions pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.72%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

US Dollar Strength pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.72%. That went against the call.

We said

Earnings Season (Q2 '26) pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.72%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Consumer Spending pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.72%. That went against the call.

We said

Durable Goods Orders pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.72%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Housing Market pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.72%. That went against the call.

We said

Cryptocurrencies pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.72%. That went against the call.

We said

China Economy pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.72%. That went against the call.

We said

AFRM: we said miss (30% odds of a beat)

What happened

AFRM came in above expectations (0.3 vs 0.1954 expected). We said miss.

We said

MRVL: we said inline (55% odds of a beat)

What happened

MRVL came in in line with expectations (0.8 vs 0.8076 expected). We said inline.

We said

BBY: we said miss (40% odds of a beat)

What happened

BBY came in above expectations (1.47 vs 1.3937 expected). We said miss.

We said

DG: we said miss (40% odds of a beat)

What happened

DG came in above expectations (2.23 vs 2.0679 expected). We said miss.

We said

ADSK: we said inline (50% odds of a beat)

What happened

ADSK came in above expectations (3.3 vs 3.1864 expected). We said inline.

We said

WDAY: we said miss (40% odds of a beat)

What happened

WDAY came in above expectations (2.66 vs 2.5578 expected). We said miss.

We said

BILI: we said miss (35% odds of a beat)

What happened

BILI came in above expectations (1.58 vs 1.544 expected). We said miss.

We said

CSIQ: we said miss (45% odds of a beat)

What happened

CSIQ came in below expectations (-1.4 vs -0.11 expected). We said miss.

We said

ESTC: we said miss (45% odds of a beat)

What happened

ESTC came in above expectations (0.61 vs 0.5684 expected). We said miss.

We said

GAP: we said miss (40% odds of a beat)

What happened

GAP came in above expectations (0.52 vs 0.4859 expected). We said miss.

We said

RBRK: we said miss (40% odds of a beat)

What happened

RBRK came in above expectations (0.2 vs 0.0402 expected). We said miss.

We said

ULTA: we said miss (45% odds of a beat)

What happened

ULTA came in above expectations (7.74 vs 6.9976 expected). We said miss.

We said

HRL: we said beat (50% odds of a beat)

What happened

HRL came in above expectations (0.37 vs 0.3569 expected). We said beat.

We said

TITN: we said beat (55% odds of a beat)

What happened

TITN came in below expectations (-0.4 vs -0.3697 expected). We said beat.

We said

CHA: we said beat (55% odds of a beat)

What happened

CHA came in above expectations (2.65 vs 1.8993 expected). We said beat.

We said

BZUN: we said miss (40% odds of a beat)

What happened

BZUN came in below expectations (0.42 vs 0.9282 expected). We said miss.

We said

LUCK: we said beat (60% odds of a beat)

What happened

LUCK came in below expectations (-0.21 vs -0.0363 expected). We said beat.