The Day Before
← Edition for Wednesday, August 26, 2026

The Report Card · Wednesday, August 26, 2026

AI euphoria meets fiscal reality

Robust AI earnings may not overcome an intensifying bond market sell-off on Wednesday.

C

Accuracy

63%

Correct

34/54

Brier score

0.220

lower is better

By Category

ForecastsD

9/13

69% accuracy

TradesC

6/8

75% accuracy

PredictionsD

11/24

46% accuracy

Drivers—

0/0

n/a

EarningsA

8/9

89% accuracy

Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened

C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.85%, actual -0.02%.

Result -0.02% @ 7675.70

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -1.20%, actual +0.05%.

Result +0.05% @ 29224.52

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.60%, actual -0.21%.

Result -0.21% @ 53463.88

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -1.50%, actual -0.14%.

Result -0.14% @ 3005.90

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.80%, actual -1.55%.

Result -1.55% @ 15.21

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.20%, actual +0.23%.

Result +0.23% @ 99.15

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.05%, actual +0.54%.

Result +0.54% @ 4.66

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.40%, actual -0.66%.

Result -0.66% @ 81.82

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.30%, actual +0.13%.

Result +0.13% @ 4644.20

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.60%, actual -0.90%.

Result -0.91% @ 68.02

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -1.80%, actual -0.28%.

Result -0.28% @ 78341.58

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -2.20%, actual +0.94%.

Result +0.94% @ 2466.23

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.60%, actual +4.77%.

Result +4.76% @ 2.90

Right

Trades — what we said vs. what happened

B

We said

—

What happened

Closed 45.09 for +0.60%.

Result +0.59% @ 45.09

Right
B

We said

—

What happened

Closed 345.82 for +1.35%.

Result +1.35% @ 345.82

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 17537.14 hit — -0.67%.

Result -0.67% @ 29224.52

Wrong
B

We said

—

What happened

Closed 555.77 for +0.01%.

Result +0.01% @ 555.77

Right
B

We said

—

What happened

Closed 43.51 for +0.25%.

Result +0.25% @ 43.51

Right
D

We said

—

What happened

Closed 205.62 for -0.66%.

Result -0.66% @ 205.62

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

Limit at 193.99 not filled (day range 188.05–193.60).

Result 0.00% @ 190.75

No call
A

We said

—

What happened

Target 4682.84 hit — +0.80%.

Result +0.80% @ 4644.20

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Limit at 376.58 not filled (day range 378.02–382.99).

Result 0.00% @ 382.02

No call
B

We said

—

What happened

Closed 313.99 for +0.41%.

Result +0.41% @ 313.99

Right

Predictions — what we said vs. what happened

—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
A

We said

—

What happened

PLTR closed +2.76%.

Result +2.76% @ 177.50

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

NOC closed +1.37%.

Result +1.37% @ 549.95

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

XOM closed -1.53%.

Result -1.52% @ 158.19

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

KO closed -1.70%.

Result -1.70% @ 90.08

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

JNJ closed -1.15%.

Result -1.15% @ 270.00

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

MO closed +1.54%.

Result +1.54% @ 69.12

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

WMT closed -0.99%.

Result -0.99% @ 104.34

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

SPDR closed 0.00%.

Result 0.00%

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

GD closed +1.44%.

Result +1.45% @ 382.02

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

LMT closed +1.64%.

Result +1.64% @ 565.62

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

CRM closed -0.03%.

Result -0.03% @ 205.62

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

TSLA closed -1.26%.

Result -1.26% @ 345.82

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

CRWD closed +2.05%.

Result +2.05% @ 189.18

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

HP closed -1.62%.

Result -1.62% @ 41.40

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

WDAY closed -1.89%.

Result -1.89% @ 190.75

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

NVDA closed -1.59%.

Result -1.59% @ 209.66

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

ZM closed -7.03%.

Result -7.03% @ 93.83

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

DASH closed +1.47%.

Result +1.47% @ 236.93

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

AMD closed +0.37%.

Result +0.36% @ 480.93

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

SPDR closed 0.00%.

Result 0.00%

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

NVDA closed -1.59%.

Result -1.59% @ 209.66

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

No ticker parsed from statement.

No call
F

We said

—

What happened

CRWD closed +2.05%.

Result +2.05% @ 189.18

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

CRM closed -0.03%.

Result -0.03% @ 205.62

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

ARK closed 0.00%.

Result 0.00%

Wrong
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

Drivers — what we said vs. what happened

C

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX flat (-0.02%).

No call
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX flat (-0.02%).

No call
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX flat (-0.02%).

No call
C

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX flat (-0.02%).

No call
C

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX flat (-0.02%).

No call
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX flat (-0.02%).

No call
C

We said

—

What happened

Called bullish; SPX flat (-0.02%).

No call
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX flat (-0.02%).

No call
C

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX flat (-0.02%).

No call
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX flat (-0.02%).

No call

Earnings — what we said vs. what happened

A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 3.88 vs est 3.1482).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (70% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.87 vs est 1.7922).

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Called miss (45% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.86 vs est 0.718).

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 3.35 vs est 3.2167).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.31 vs est 0.2984).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 3.24 vs est 2.2219).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 2.01 vs est 1.8126).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.05 vs est 0.9841).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 2.24 vs est 2.1746).

Right
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call

Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.