The Report Card · Wednesday, August 26, 2026
AI euphoria meets fiscal reality
Robust AI earnings may not overcome an intensifying bond market sell-off on Wednesday.
Accuracy
63%
Correct
34/54
Brier score
0.220
lower is better
We got 34 of 54 calls right on Wednesday, August 26, 2026.
By Category
9/13
69% accuracy
6/8
75% accuracy
11/24
46% accuracy
0/0
n/a
8/9
89% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -0.85%, actual -0.02%.
Result -0.02% @ 7675.70
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -1.20%, actual +0.05%.
Result +0.05% @ 29224.52
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -0.60%, actual -0.21%.
Result -0.21% @ 53463.88
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -1.50%, actual -0.14%.
Result -0.14% @ 3005.90
We said
—
What happened
Predicted +0.80%, actual -1.55%.
Result -1.55% @ 15.21
We said
—
What happened
Predicted +0.20%, actual +0.23%.
Result +0.23% @ 99.15
We said
—
What happened
Predicted +0.05%, actual +0.54%.
Result +0.54% @ 4.66
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -0.40%, actual -0.66%.
Result -0.66% @ 81.82
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -0.30%, actual +0.13%.
Result +0.13% @ 4644.20
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -0.60%, actual -0.90%.
Result -0.91% @ 68.02
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -1.80%, actual -0.28%.
Result -0.28% @ 78341.58
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -2.20%, actual +0.94%.
Result +0.94% @ 2466.23
We said
—
What happened
Predicted +0.60%, actual +4.77%.
Result +4.76% @ 2.90
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
—
What happened
Closed 45.09 for +0.60%.
Result +0.59% @ 45.09
We said
—
What happened
Closed 345.82 for +1.35%.
Result +1.35% @ 345.82
We said
—
What happened
Stop 17537.14 hit — -0.67%.
Result -0.67% @ 29224.52
We said
—
What happened
Closed 555.77 for +0.01%.
Result +0.01% @ 555.77
We said
—
What happened
Closed 43.51 for +0.25%.
Result +0.25% @ 43.51
We said
—
What happened
Closed 205.62 for -0.66%.
Result -0.66% @ 205.62
We said
—
What happened
Limit at 193.99 not filled (day range 188.05–193.60).
Result 0.00% @ 190.75
We said
—
What happened
Target 4682.84 hit — +0.80%.
Result +0.80% @ 4644.20
We said
—
What happened
Limit at 376.58 not filled (day range 378.02–382.99).
Result 0.00% @ 382.02
We said
—
What happened
Closed 313.99 for +0.41%.
Result +0.41% @ 313.99
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
PLTR closed +2.76%.
Result +2.76% @ 177.50
We said
—
What happened
NOC closed +1.37%.
Result +1.37% @ 549.95
We said
—
What happened
XOM closed -1.53%.
Result -1.52% @ 158.19
We said
—
What happened
KO closed -1.70%.
Result -1.70% @ 90.08
We said
—
What happened
JNJ closed -1.15%.
Result -1.15% @ 270.00
We said
—
What happened
MO closed +1.54%.
Result +1.54% @ 69.12
We said
—
What happened
WMT closed -0.99%.
Result -0.99% @ 104.34
We said
—
What happened
SPDR closed 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
—
What happened
GD closed +1.44%.
Result +1.45% @ 382.02
We said
—
What happened
LMT closed +1.64%.
Result +1.64% @ 565.62
We said
—
What happened
CRM closed -0.03%.
Result -0.03% @ 205.62
We said
—
What happened
TSLA closed -1.26%.
Result -1.26% @ 345.82
We said
—
What happened
CRWD closed +2.05%.
Result +2.05% @ 189.18
We said
—
What happened
HP closed -1.62%.
Result -1.62% @ 41.40
We said
—
What happened
WDAY closed -1.89%.
Result -1.89% @ 190.75
We said
—
What happened
NVDA closed -1.59%.
Result -1.59% @ 209.66
We said
—
What happened
ZM closed -7.03%.
Result -7.03% @ 93.83
We said
—
What happened
DASH closed +1.47%.
Result +1.47% @ 236.93
We said
—
What happened
AMD closed +0.37%.
Result +0.36% @ 480.93
We said
—
What happened
SPDR closed 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
—
What happened
NVDA closed -1.59%.
Result -1.59% @ 209.66
We said
—
What happened
No ticker parsed from statement.
We said
—
What happened
CRWD closed +2.05%.
Result +2.05% @ 189.18
We said
—
What happened
CRM closed -0.03%.
Result -0.03% @ 205.62
We said
—
What happened
ARK closed 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
—
What happened
Called bearish; SPX flat (-0.02%).
We said
—
What happened
Called mixed; SPX flat (-0.02%).
We said
—
What happened
Called mixed; SPX flat (-0.02%).
We said
—
What happened
Called bearish; SPX flat (-0.02%).
We said
—
What happened
Called bearish; SPX flat (-0.02%).
We said
—
What happened
Called mixed; SPX flat (-0.02%).
We said
—
What happened
Called bullish; SPX flat (-0.02%).
We said
—
What happened
Called mixed; SPX flat (-0.02%).
We said
—
What happened
Called bearish; SPX flat (-0.02%).
We said
—
What happened
Called mixed; SPX flat (-0.02%).
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
—
What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 3.88 vs est 3.1482).
We said
—
What happened
Called beat (70% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.87 vs est 1.7922).
We said
—
What happened
Called miss (45% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.86 vs est 0.718).
We said
—
What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 3.35 vs est 3.2167).
We said
—
What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.31 vs est 0.2984).
We said
—
What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 3.24 vs est 2.2219).
We said
—
What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 2.01 vs est 1.8126).
We said
—
What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.05 vs est 0.9841).
We said
—
What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 2.24 vs est 2.1746).
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.