The Report Card · Tuesday, August 25, 2026
Yield Curve Steepening Pressures Growth Equities as Rate Expectations Recalibrate
The market will likely see continued rotation out of long-duration growth stocks into financials and energy as investors price in a higher, longer Fed rate path, causing the 2s/10s curve to steepen further.
Accuracy
37%
Correct
21/57
Brier score
0.332
lower is better
We got 21 of 57 calls right on Tuesday, August 25, 2026.
By Category
3/13
23% accuracy
1/8
13% accuracy
14/24
58% accuracy
1/6
17% accuracy
2/6
33% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.40%, actual +0.32%.
Result +0.32% @ 7677.28
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.70%, actual +0.64%.
Result +0.64% @ 29209.23
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.20%, actual +0.30%.
Result +0.30% @ 53577.40
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.30%, actual +0.50%.
Result +0.50% @ 3010.02
We said
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What happened
Predicted +2.50%, actual -2.52%.
Result -2.52% @ 15.45
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.20%, actual -0.12%.
Result -0.12% @ 98.89
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.05%, actual -1.38%.
Result -1.38% @ 4.64
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.30%, actual -5.47%.
Result -5.47% @ 80.36
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.50%, actual +1.78%.
Result +1.78% @ 4723.30
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.80%, actual +0.62%.
Result +0.62% @ 68.97
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.20%, actual -0.26%.
Result -0.26% @ 78756.48
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.50%, actual -1.12%.
Result -1.13% @ 2453.92
We said
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What happened
Predicted 0.00%, actual +2.05%.
Result +2.05% @ 2.84
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Stop 57.87 hit — -0.60%.
Result -0.60% @ 58.31
We said
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What happened
Limit at 18.37 not filled (day range 17.40–18.09).
Result 0.00% @ 17.68
We said
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What happened
Stop 163.01 hit — -0.60%.
Result -0.60% @ 160.64
We said
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What happened
Limit at 369.8 not filled (day range 356.02–367.85).
Result 0.00% @ 357.46
We said
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What happened
Stop 550.74 hit — -0.90%.
Result -0.90% @ 555.82
We said
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What happened
Closed 218.99 for +0.79%.
Result +0.79% @ 218.99
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What happened
Stop 354.49 hit — -0.53%.
Result -0.53% @ 356.69
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What happened
Stop 18 hit — -1.37%.
Result -1.37% @ 18.01
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What happened
Stop 710.78 hit — -0.67%.
Result -0.67% @ 710.72
We said
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What happened
Closed 105.46 for -0.07%.
Result -0.07% @ 105.46
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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JPM closed +0.08%.
Result +0.08% @ 356.69
We said
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What happened
XOM closed -2.08%.
Result -2.08% @ 160.64
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What happened
WFC closed +0.08%.
Result +0.08% @ 84.79
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What happened
COP closed -1.13%.
Result -1.13% @ 131.84
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What happened
GS closed +2.18%.
Result +2.18% @ 1058.88
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What happened
CVX closed -1.58%.
Result -1.58% @ 199.89
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What happened
BAC closed +0.16%.
Result +0.16% @ 62.43
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What happened
GE closed +2.25%.
Result +2.25% @ 349.54
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What happened
MS closed +1.26%.
Result +1.26% @ 216.77
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What happened
OXY closed -2.83%.
Result -2.83% @ 58.41
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What happened
TSLA closed +0.37%.
Result +0.37% @ 350.25
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What happened
AMZN closed -0.39%.
Result -0.39% @ 261.06
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What happened
META closed +1.97%.
Result +1.97% @ 570.05
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What happened
MSFT closed +0.90%.
Result +0.90% @ 491.71
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What happened
AAPL closed -0.14%.
Result -0.14% @ 309.90
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What happened
KSS closed -3.39%.
Result -3.39% @ 17.68
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What happened
NVDA closed +2.19%.
Result +2.19% @ 213.05
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What happened
CRM closed -1.61%.
Result -1.61% @ 205.69
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What happened
W closed +1.30%.
Result +1.30% @ 104.53
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What happened
ZS closed -4.34%.
Result -4.34% @ 168.42
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What happened
KSS closed -3.39%.
Result -3.39% @ 17.68
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What happened
INTU closed -3.37%.
Result -3.37% @ 357.46
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What happened
No ticker parsed from statement.
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What happened
CL closed -5.47%.
Result -5.47% @ 80.36
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What happened
DXY closed -0.12%.
Result -0.12% @ 98.89
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.32%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.32%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.32%).
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What happened
Called bullish; SPX up (+0.32%).
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.32%).
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.32%).
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.32%).
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.32%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.32%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.32%).
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
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What happened
Called beat (70% beat); actual inline (EPS 12.8 vs est 12.8224).
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What happened
Called miss (35% beat); actual beat (EPS -0.13 vs est -0.1919).
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What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.55 vs est 1.4601).
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.37 vs est 0.3662).
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What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual beat (EPS -0.06 vs est -0.0663).
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What happened
Called miss (45% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.93 vs est 1.8251).
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What happened
Not yet reported.
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Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.