The Day Before
← Edition for Tuesday, August 25, 2026

The Report Card · Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Yield Curve Steepening Pressures Growth Equities as Rate Expectations Recalibrate

The market will likely see continued rotation out of long-duration growth stocks into financials and energy as investors price in a higher, longer Fed rate path, causing the 2s/10s curve to steepen further.

D

Accuracy

37%

Correct

21/57

Brier score

0.332

lower is better

By Category

ForecastsF

3/13

23% accuracy

TradesF

1/8

13% accuracy

PredictionsC

14/24

58% accuracy

DriversF

1/6

17% accuracy

EarningsD

2/6

33% accuracy

Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened

F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.40%, actual +0.32%.

Result +0.32% @ 7677.28

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.70%, actual +0.64%.

Result +0.64% @ 29209.23

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.20%, actual +0.30%.

Result +0.30% @ 53577.40

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.30%, actual +0.50%.

Result +0.50% @ 3010.02

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +2.50%, actual -2.52%.

Result -2.52% @ 15.45

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.20%, actual -0.12%.

Result -0.12% @ 98.89

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.05%, actual -1.38%.

Result -1.38% @ 4.64

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.30%, actual -5.47%.

Result -5.47% @ 80.36

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.50%, actual +1.78%.

Result +1.78% @ 4723.30

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.80%, actual +0.62%.

Result +0.62% @ 68.97

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -1.20%, actual -0.26%.

Result -0.26% @ 78756.48

Right
B

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -1.50%, actual -1.12%.

Result -1.13% @ 2453.92

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted 0.00%, actual +2.05%.

Result +2.05% @ 2.84

Right

Trades — what we said vs. what happened

F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 57.87 hit — -0.60%.

Result -0.60% @ 58.31

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

Limit at 18.37 not filled (day range 17.40–18.09).

Result 0.00% @ 17.68

No call
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 163.01 hit — -0.60%.

Result -0.60% @ 160.64

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

Limit at 369.8 not filled (day range 356.02–367.85).

Result 0.00% @ 357.46

No call
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 550.74 hit — -0.90%.

Result -0.90% @ 555.82

Wrong
B

We said

—

What happened

Closed 218.99 for +0.79%.

Result +0.79% @ 218.99

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 354.49 hit — -0.53%.

Result -0.53% @ 356.69

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 18 hit — -1.37%.

Result -1.37% @ 18.01

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 710.78 hit — -0.67%.

Result -0.67% @ 710.72

Wrong
D

We said

—

What happened

Closed 105.46 for -0.07%.

Result -0.07% @ 105.46

Wrong

Predictions — what we said vs. what happened

—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
A

We said

—

What happened

JPM closed +0.08%.

Result +0.08% @ 356.69

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

XOM closed -2.08%.

Result -2.08% @ 160.64

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

WFC closed +0.08%.

Result +0.08% @ 84.79

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

COP closed -1.13%.

Result -1.13% @ 131.84

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

GS closed +2.18%.

Result +2.18% @ 1058.88

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

CVX closed -1.58%.

Result -1.58% @ 199.89

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

BAC closed +0.16%.

Result +0.16% @ 62.43

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

GE closed +2.25%.

Result +2.25% @ 349.54

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

MS closed +1.26%.

Result +1.26% @ 216.77

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

OXY closed -2.83%.

Result -2.83% @ 58.41

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

TSLA closed +0.37%.

Result +0.37% @ 350.25

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

AMZN closed -0.39%.

Result -0.39% @ 261.06

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

META closed +1.97%.

Result +1.97% @ 570.05

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

MSFT closed +0.90%.

Result +0.90% @ 491.71

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

AAPL closed -0.14%.

Result -0.14% @ 309.90

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

KSS closed -3.39%.

Result -3.39% @ 17.68

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

NVDA closed +2.19%.

Result +2.19% @ 213.05

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

CRM closed -1.61%.

Result -1.61% @ 205.69

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

W closed +1.30%.

Result +1.30% @ 104.53

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

ZS closed -4.34%.

Result -4.34% @ 168.42

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

KSS closed -3.39%.

Result -3.39% @ 17.68

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

INTU closed -3.37%.

Result -3.37% @ 357.46

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

No ticker parsed from statement.

No call
A

We said

—

What happened

CL closed -5.47%.

Result -5.47% @ 80.36

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

DXY closed -0.12%.

Result -0.12% @ 98.89

Wrong
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

Drivers — what we said vs. what happened

F

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX up (+0.32%).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX up (+0.32%).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX up (+0.32%).

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bullish; SPX up (+0.32%).

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX up (+0.32%).

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX up (+0.32%).

No call
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX up (+0.32%).

No call
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX up (+0.32%).

No call
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX up (+0.32%).

No call
F

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX up (+0.32%).

Wrong

Earnings — what we said vs. what happened

F

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (70% beat); actual inline (EPS 12.8 vs est 12.8224).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called miss (35% beat); actual beat (EPS -0.13 vs est -0.1919).

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.55 vs est 1.4601).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.37 vs est 0.3662).

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Called miss (40% beat); actual beat (EPS -0.06 vs est -0.0663).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called miss (45% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.93 vs est 1.8251).

Wrong
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call

Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.