The Day Before
← Edition for Monday, August 24, 2026

The Report Card · Monday, August 24, 2026

A Longer Horizon for Rates, and a Shorter Leash for Growth

The market's hawkish repricing of long-end rates will continue to temper risk appetite, particularly for growth-sensitive equities, in Monday's session.

C

Accuracy

56%

Correct

32/57

Brier score

0.236

lower is better

By Category

ForecastsD

9/13

69% accuracy

TradesF

1/7

14% accuracy

PredictionsC

15/25

60% accuracy

DriversB

6/7

86% accuracy

EarningsF

1/5

20% accuracy

Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened

A

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.40%, actual -0.28%.

Result -0.28% @ 7652.86

Right
B

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.70%, actual -0.97%.

Result -0.97% @ 29023.18

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.20%, actual +0.26%.

Result +0.26% @ 53417.16

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.80%, actual -0.76%.

Result -0.76% @ 2995.08

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +2.50%, actual +4.76%.

Result +4.76% @ 15.85

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.20%, actual +0.20%.

Result +0.20% @ 99.00

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.50%, actual -0.72%.

Result -0.72% @ 4.70

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.30%, actual -2.39%.

Result -2.39% @ 84.98

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.30%, actual +1.79%.

Result +1.79% @ 4707.00

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.50%, actual -0.87%.

Result -0.87% @ 68.86

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -1.20%, actual +1.33%.

Result +1.33% @ 78792.99

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -1.50%, actual +0.29%.

Result +0.29% @ 2470.91

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +1.00%, actual +1.12%.

Result +1.12% @ 2.80

Right

Trades — what we said vs. what happened

F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 17476.75 hit — -0.32%.

Result -0.32% @ 29023.18

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

Limit at 560.01 not filled (day range 540.77–553.95).

Result 0.00% @ 546.80

No call
C

We said

—

What happened

Limit at 12.25 not filled (day range 11.10–12.00).

Result 0.00% @ 11.15

No call
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 118.38 hit — -0.31%.

Result -0.30% @ 118.30

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

Limit at 423.36 not filled (day range 424.21–429.42).

Result 0.00% @ 426.69

No call
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 174.11 hit — -0.29%.

Result -0.29% @ 174.70

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 184.43 hit — -0.67%.

Result -0.67% @ 179.33

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 84.33 hit — -0.31%.

Result -0.31% @ 79.41

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

Target 43.01 hit — +0.49%.

Result +0.49% @ 43.22

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 5.43 hit — -0.56%.

Result -0.56% @ 5.36

Wrong

Predictions — what we said vs. what happened

F

We said

—

What happened

DKS closed -2.13%.

Result -2.13% @ 179.33

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

PICS closed +2.83%.

Result +2.83% @ 10.90

Wrong
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
A

We said

—

What happened

DUK closed +1.77%.

Result +1.77% @ 121.97

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

SCCO closed -0.81%.

Result -0.81% @ 214.25

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

AMGN closed +1.03%.

Result +1.03% @ 443.84

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

KMI closed +0.06%.

Result +0.07% @ 31.00

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

KO closed +0.98%.

Result +0.98% @ 91.99

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

VZ closed +1.42%.

Result +1.42% @ 50.15

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

WM closed +1.07%.

Result +1.07% @ 226.46

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

MCD closed +0.59%.

Result +0.59% @ 272.54

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

RTX closed -0.33%.

Result -0.33% @ 209.22

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

EIX closed +3.32%.

Result +3.32% @ 73.97

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

NIO closed -5.83%.

Result -5.83% @ 4.36

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

PANW closed -1.95%.

Result -1.95% @ 350.90

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

TSLA closed -3.83%.

Result -3.83% @ 348.95

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

AMD closed -3.49%.

Result -3.49% @ 456.75

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

W closed +1.65%.

Result +1.65% @ 103.19

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

U closed -1.64%.

Result -1.64% @ 46.16

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

CRM closed -0.05%.

Result -0.05% @ 209.06

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

PTON closed -0.92%.

Result -0.92% @ 5.36

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

CVNA closed +3.46%.

Result +3.46% @ 72.33

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

SQ closed 0.00%.

Result 0.00%

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

PVH closed -1.87%.

Result -1.87% @ 77.03

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

TUYA closed -2.22%.

Result -2.22% @ 1.76

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

GOTU closed +0.60%.

Result +0.59% @ 1.69

Wrong
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

Drivers — what we said vs. what happened

A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.28%).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.28%).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.28%).

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX down (-0.28%).

No call
F

We said

—

What happened

Called bullish; SPX down (-0.28%).

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.28%).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.28%).

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX down (-0.28%).

No call
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX down (-0.28%).

No call
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.28%).

Right

Earnings — what we said vs. what happened

A

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (45% beat); actual inline (EPS 2.9 vs est 2.9279).

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 19.160835 vs est 18.3978).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (35% beat); actual miss (EPS -1.411851 vs est -0.5663).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (30% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.31 vs est 1.1881).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 2.01 vs est 1.8922).

Wrong
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call

Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.