The Report Card · Friday, August 21, 2026
The Market's Shifting Sands: When Growth Diverges, and Rates Remain Restrictive
Tomorrow's session is likely to see further divergence between high-quality growth names and broader market indices, as the restrictive rate environment continues to bite into lower-quality earnings expectations.
Accuracy
42%
Correct
23/55
Brier score
0.279
lower is better
By Category
7/13
54% accuracy
2/10
20% accuracy
13/25
52% accuracy
1/7
14% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Predicted 0.00%, actual +6.11%.
Result +6.11% @ 77498.34
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.30%, actual +0.43%.
Result +0.43% @ 7674.37
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What happened
Predicted +0.20%, actual +0.33%.
Result +0.33% @ 29308.86
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What happened
Predicted -0.50%, actual +0.98%.
Result +0.98% @ 53277.01
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What happened
Predicted -0.80%, actual +0.85%.
Result +0.85% @ 3017.87
We said
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What happened
Predicted +2.50%, actual -5.50%.
Result -5.50% @ 15.13
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.10%, actual -0.07%.
Result -0.07% @ 98.83
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.01%, actual +0.89%.
Result +0.89% @ 4.74
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.20%, actual -1.16%.
Result -1.16% @ 86.81
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.30%, actual +3.37%.
Result +3.37% @ 4668.60
We said
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What happened
Predicted 0.00%, actual +1.51%.
Result +1.50% @ 69.05
We said
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What happened
Predicted 0.00%, actual +4.81%.
Result +4.81% @ 2438.20
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.50%, actual +2.09%.
Result +2.09% @ 2.79
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
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What happened
Stop 216.11 hit — -0.40%.
Result -0.40% @ 214.72
We said
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What happened
Stop 117.21 hit — -0.45%.
Result -0.45% @ 118.02
We said
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What happened
Stop 479.62 hit — -0.39%.
Result -0.39% @ 483.24
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What happened
Stop 74.9 hit — -0.55%.
Result -0.55% @ 74.86
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Stop 43.74 hit — -0.34%.
Result -0.34% @ 42.77
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What happened
Stop 310.67 hit — -0.38%.
Result -0.38% @ 309.35
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What happened
Stop 180.62 hit — -0.47%.
Result -0.47% @ 180.25
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What happened
Target 342.37 hit — +0.50%.
Result +0.50% @ 344.82
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Stop 71.4 hit — -0.48%.
Result -0.48% @ 76.66
We said
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What happened
Target 206.52 hit — +0.50%.
Result +0.50% @ 209.17
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
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NVDA closed -0.98%.
Result -0.98% @ 214.72
We said
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What happened
MSFT closed +0.43%.
Result +0.43% @ 483.24
We said
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What happened
AVGO closed +1.21%.
Result +1.21% @ 368.45
We said
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What happened
GOOGL closed +1.22%.
Result +1.22% @ 344.82
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What happened
META closed +0.75%.
Result +0.75% @ 549.90
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What happened
LLY closed +0.88%.
Result +0.88% @ 1255.40
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What happened
PG closed +1.20%.
Result +1.20% @ 144.68
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What happened
NEE closed -1.62%.
Result -1.62% @ 83.65
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What happened
NOW closed -0.98%.
Result -0.98% @ 128.48
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What happened
COST closed +1.52%.
Result +1.52% @ 947.74
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What happened
DAL closed +1.67%.
Result +1.67% @ 82.41
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What happened
CCL closed +1.42%.
Result +1.42% @ 25.73
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What happened
F closed +3.00%.
Result +3.00% @ 14.41
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What happened
ZION closed +0.37%.
Result +0.37% @ 68.14
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What happened
PHM closed +1.04%.
Result +1.04% @ 129.00
We said
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What happened
FCX closed +7.64%.
Result +7.64% @ 76.66
We said
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What happened
UNP closed +1.34%.
Result +1.34% @ 308.05
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What happened
SPG closed -0.73%.
Result -0.73% @ 218.29
We said
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What happened
PYPL closed -1.20%.
Result -1.20% @ 61.55
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What happened
SBUX closed +2.97%.
Result +2.97% @ 107.08
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What happened
COIN closed +8.20%.
Result +8.20% @ 186.49
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RIVN closed +6.00%.
Result +6.00% @ 16.97
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GME closed +0.94%.
Result +0.94% @ 18.21
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What happened
PLTR closed +3.44%.
Result +3.44% @ 179.94
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What happened
MRNA closed +8.86%.
Result +8.86% @ 145.13
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What happened
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Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.43%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.43%).
We said
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What happened
Called bullish; SPX up (+0.43%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.43%).
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.43%).
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.43%).
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.43%).
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.43%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.43%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.43%).
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.