← Edition for Friday, August 21, 2026

The Report Card · Friday, August 21, 2026

The Market's Shifting Sands: When Growth Diverges, and Rates Remain Restrictive

Tomorrow's session is likely to see further divergence between high-quality growth names and broader market indices, as the restrictive rate environment continues to bite into lower-quality earnings expectations.

D

Accuracy

42%

Correct

23/55

Brier score

0.279

lower is better

By Category

ForecastsF

7/13

54% accuracy

TradesF

2/10

20% accuracy

PredictionsC

13/25

52% accuracy

DriversF

1/7

14% accuracy

Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened

F

We said

What happened

Predicted 0.00%, actual +6.11%.

Result +6.11% @ 77498.34

Right
F

We said

What happened

Predicted -0.30%, actual +0.43%.

Result +0.43% @ 7674.37

Wrong
B

We said

What happened

Predicted +0.20%, actual +0.33%.

Result +0.33% @ 29308.86

Right
F

We said

What happened

Predicted -0.50%, actual +0.98%.

Result +0.98% @ 53277.01

Wrong
F

We said

What happened

Predicted -0.80%, actual +0.85%.

Result +0.85% @ 3017.87

Wrong
F

We said

What happened

Predicted +2.50%, actual -5.50%.

Result -5.50% @ 15.13

Wrong
F

We said

What happened

Predicted +0.10%, actual -0.07%.

Result -0.07% @ 98.83

Wrong
D

We said

What happened

Predicted +0.01%, actual +0.89%.

Result +0.89% @ 4.74

Right
D

We said

What happened

Predicted -0.20%, actual -1.16%.

Result -1.16% @ 86.81

Right
F

We said

What happened

Predicted +0.30%, actual +3.37%.

Result +3.37% @ 4668.60

Right
F

We said

What happened

Predicted 0.00%, actual +1.51%.

Result +1.50% @ 69.05

Right
F

We said

What happened

Predicted 0.00%, actual +4.81%.

Result +4.81% @ 2438.20

Right
F

We said

What happened

Predicted -0.50%, actual +2.09%.

Result +2.09% @ 2.79

Wrong

Trades — what we said vs. what happened

F

We said

What happened

Stop 216.11 hit — -0.40%.

Result -0.40% @ 214.72

Wrong
F

We said

What happened

Stop 117.21 hit — -0.45%.

Result -0.45% @ 118.02

Wrong
F

We said

What happened

Stop 479.62 hit — -0.39%.

Result -0.39% @ 483.24

Wrong
F

We said

What happened

Stop 74.9 hit — -0.55%.

Result -0.55% @ 74.86

Wrong
F

We said

What happened

Stop 43.74 hit — -0.34%.

Result -0.34% @ 42.77

Wrong
F

We said

What happened

Stop 310.67 hit — -0.38%.

Result -0.38% @ 309.35

Wrong
F

We said

What happened

Stop 180.62 hit — -0.47%.

Result -0.47% @ 180.25

Wrong
A

We said

What happened

Target 342.37 hit — +0.50%.

Result +0.50% @ 344.82

Right
F

We said

What happened

Stop 71.4 hit — -0.48%.

Result -0.48% @ 76.66

Wrong
A

We said

What happened

Target 206.52 hit — +0.50%.

Result +0.50% @ 209.17

Right

Predictions — what we said vs. what happened

We said

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

We said

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

We said

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

We said

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

We said

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

We said

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

We said

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

We said

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

We said

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

We said

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

We said

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

We said

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

We said

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

We said

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

We said

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
F

We said

What happened

NVDA closed -0.98%.

Result -0.98% @ 214.72

Wrong
A

We said

What happened

MSFT closed +0.43%.

Result +0.43% @ 483.24

Right
A

We said

What happened

AVGO closed +1.21%.

Result +1.21% @ 368.45

Right
A

We said

What happened

GOOGL closed +1.22%.

Result +1.22% @ 344.82

Right
A

We said

What happened

META closed +0.75%.

Result +0.75% @ 549.90

Right
A

We said

What happened

LLY closed +0.88%.

Result +0.88% @ 1255.40

Right
A

We said

What happened

PG closed +1.20%.

Result +1.20% @ 144.68

Right
F

We said

What happened

NEE closed -1.62%.

Result -1.62% @ 83.65

Wrong
F

We said

What happened

NOW closed -0.98%.

Result -0.98% @ 128.48

Wrong
A

We said

What happened

COST closed +1.52%.

Result +1.52% @ 947.74

Right
F

We said

What happened

DAL closed +1.67%.

Result +1.67% @ 82.41

Wrong
F

We said

What happened

CCL closed +1.42%.

Result +1.42% @ 25.73

Wrong
F

We said

What happened

F closed +3.00%.

Result +3.00% @ 14.41

Wrong
F

We said

What happened

ZION closed +0.37%.

Result +0.37% @ 68.14

Wrong
F

We said

What happened

PHM closed +1.04%.

Result +1.04% @ 129.00

Wrong
F

We said

What happened

FCX closed +7.64%.

Result +7.64% @ 76.66

Wrong
F

We said

What happened

UNP closed +1.34%.

Result +1.34% @ 308.05

Wrong
A

We said

What happened

SPG closed -0.73%.

Result -0.73% @ 218.29

Right
A

We said

What happened

PYPL closed -1.20%.

Result -1.20% @ 61.55

Right
F

We said

What happened

SBUX closed +2.97%.

Result +2.97% @ 107.08

Wrong
A

We said

What happened

COIN closed +8.20%.

Result +8.20% @ 186.49

Right
A

We said

What happened

RIVN closed +6.00%.

Result +6.00% @ 16.97

Right
F

We said

What happened

GME closed +0.94%.

Result +0.94% @ 18.21

Wrong
A

We said

What happened

PLTR closed +3.44%.

Result +3.44% @ 179.94

Right
A

We said

What happened

MRNA closed +8.86%.

Result +8.86% @ 145.13

Right

We said

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

We said

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

We said

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

We said

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

We said

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

We said

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

Drivers — what we said vs. what happened

F

We said

What happened

Called bearish; SPX up (+0.43%).

Wrong
F

We said

What happened

Called bearish; SPX up (+0.43%).

Wrong
A

We said

What happened

Called bullish; SPX up (+0.43%).

Right
F

We said

What happened

Called bearish; SPX up (+0.43%).

Wrong
F

We said

What happened

Called bearish; SPX up (+0.43%).

Wrong
C

We said

What happened

Called mixed; SPX up (+0.43%).

No call
F

We said

What happened

Called bearish; SPX up (+0.43%).

Wrong
C

We said

What happened

Called mixed; SPX up (+0.43%).

No call
F

We said

What happened

Called bearish; SPX up (+0.43%).

Wrong
C

We said

What happened

Called mixed; SPX up (+0.43%).

No call

Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.