The Report Card · Thursday, August 13, 2026
The Patience Test: Markets Await Convincing Declines As Inflationary Pressures Linger
Amidst resilient consumer spending and stubbornly high energy prices, equity markets will struggle to find directional conviction, with technology remaining relatively insulated.
Accuracy
39%
Correct
25/64
Brier score
0.259
lower is better
By Category
5/12
42% accuracy
0/6
0% accuracy
11/25
44% accuracy
1/6
17% accuracy
8/15
53% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -0.20%, actual +0.65%.
Result +0.65% @ 7798.99
We said
—
What happened
Predicted +0.10%, actual +1.15%.
Result +1.15% @ 30084.50
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -0.30%, actual +0.13%.
Result +0.13% @ 53839.99
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -0.60%, actual +0.24%.
Result +0.24% @ 3052.85
We said
—
What happened
Predicted +0.80%, actual +0.55%.
Result +0.55% @ 14.63
We said
—
What happened
Predicted +0.15%, actual -0.03%.
Result -0.03% @ 99.98
We said
—
What happened
Predicted +0.05%, actual -0.88%.
Result -0.88% @ 4.64
We said
—
What happened
Predicted +0.40%, actual -2.52%.
Result -2.52% @ 81.17
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -0.25%, actual -0.08%.
Result -0.08% @ 4405.50
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -0.30%, actual -1.50%.
Result -1.50% @ 64.57
We said
—
What happened
Predicted 0.00%, actual -0.02%.
Result -0.03% @ 63386.84
We said
—
What happened
Predicted 0.00%, actual +0.47%.
Result +0.47% @ 1886.88
We said
—
What happened
Predicted +0.50%, actual -2.64%.
Result -2.64% @ 2.73
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
—
What happened
Stop 540.47 hit — -1.40%.
Result -1.40% @ 534.54
We said
—
What happened
Stop 118.62 hit — -0.82%.
Result -0.82% @ 118.45
We said
—
What happened
Stop 10.31 hit — -2.49%.
Result -2.48% @ 10.23
We said
—
What happened
Stop 60.54 hit — -0.88%.
Result -0.88% @ 61.06
We said
—
What happened
Stop 109.94 hit — -1.47%.
Result -1.47% @ 109.53
We said
—
What happened
Limit at 1038 not filled (day range 1038.74–1059.07).
Result 0.00% @ 1042.63
We said
—
What happened
Limit at 75.82 not filled (day range 75.99–76.43).
Result 0.00% @ 76.23
We said
—
What happened
Limit at 404.37 not filled (day range 398.28–402.58).
Result 0.00% @ 398.96
We said
—
What happened
Limit at 7.98 not filled (day range 8.08–8.45).
Result 0.00% @ 8.14
We said
—
What happened
Stop 98.28 hit — -1.00%.
Result -1.00% @ 98.58
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
AMAT closed -2.48%.
Result -2.48% @ 534.54
We said
—
What happened
ARCO closed +3.04%.
Result +3.04% @ 8.14
We said
—
What happened
BN closed +0.94%.
Result +0.94% @ 45.11
We said
—
What happened
TPR closed -16.49%.
Result -16.49% @ 128.39
We said
—
What happened
EQNR closed -1.10%.
Result -1.10% @ 40.54
We said
—
What happened
MPC closed +2.33%.
Result +2.33% @ 356.37
We said
—
What happened
MSFT closed +0.90%.
Result +0.90% @ 496.88
We said
—
What happened
NVDA closed +0.54%.
Result +0.54% @ 225.30
We said
—
What happened
COP closed -2.18%.
Result -2.18% @ 124.52
We said
—
What happened
GMRS closed +8.55%.
Result +8.55% @ 13.96
We said
—
What happened
STNE closed +2.30%.
Result +2.30% @ 10.23
We said
—
What happened
BAP closed +0.78%.
Result +0.78% @ 375.14
We said
—
What happened
BIRK closed +11.59%.
Result +11.60% @ 41.00
We said
—
What happened
YSWY closed +11.29%.
Result +11.29% @ 24.35
We said
—
What happened
AMZN closed -0.80%.
Result -0.80% @ 265.13
We said
—
What happened
WHR closed 0.00%.
Result 0.00% @ 42.85
We said
—
What happened
HOME closed 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
—
What happened
PHM closed +1.08%.
Result +1.08% @ 130.55
We said
—
What happened
PLD closed +0.34%.
Result +0.34% @ 141.21
We said
—
What happened
UHAL closed -0.52%.
Result -0.52% @ 74.00
We said
—
What happened
AIT closed +1.51%.
Result +1.51% @ 357.62
We said
—
What happened
NU closed +2.73%.
Result +2.73% @ 13.93
We said
—
What happened
LGN closed -7.92%.
Result -7.92% @ 63.24
We said
—
What happened
MWH closed +8.77%.
Result +8.77% @ 32.73
We said
—
What happened
NOMD closed +5.61%.
Result +5.61% @ 12.04
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
—
What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.65%).
We said
—
What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.65%).
We said
—
What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.65%).
We said
—
What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.65%).
We said
—
What happened
Called bullish; SPX up (+0.65%).
We said
—
What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.65%).
We said
—
What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.65%).
We said
—
What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.65%).
We said
—
What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.65%).
We said
—
What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.65%).
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
—
What happened
Called beat (70% beat); actual beat (EPS 3.5 vs est 3.4544).
We said
—
What happened
Called miss (35% beat); actual miss (EPS 2.19 vs est 2.2791).
We said
—
What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 3.17 vs est 2.9462).
We said
—
What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 25.9 vs est 24.8061).
We said
—
What happened
Called miss (45% beat); actual miss (EPS 0.745534 vs est 0.7722).
We said
—
What happened
Called beat (58% beat); actual miss (EPS 0.66 vs est 0.6695).
We said
—
What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual miss (EPS 0.178 vs est 0.2039).
We said
—
What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.32 vs est 1.2964).
We said
—
What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.67 vs est 0.5561).
We said
—
What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.22 vs est 0.1377).
We said
—
What happened
Called inline (50% beat); actual miss (EPS 0.17 vs est 0.3474).
We said
—
What happened
Called miss (48% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.3 vs est 0.2707).
We said
—
What happened
Called miss (45% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.390015 vs est 0.379).
We said
—
What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual miss (EPS 0.36 vs est 0.5182).
We said
—
What happened
Actual EPS not yet posted.
We said
—
What happened
Actual EPS not yet posted.
We said
—
What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual beat (EPS -0.09 vs est -0.1122).
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.