The Report Card · Wednesday, August 12, 2026
Yields Find Their Floor: Disinflationary Hope Fades as Market Adjusts to 'Higher for Longer'
Wednesday's session will likely see US Treasury yields grind higher, dampening equity sentiment, particularly in growth-oriented sectors, as disinflationary bets continue to unwind.
Accuracy
33%
Correct
21/63
Brier score
0.367
lower is better
We got 21 of 63 calls right on Wednesday, August 12, 2026.
By Category
4/12
33% accuracy
1/7
14% accuracy
11/25
44% accuracy
2/6
33% accuracy
3/13
23% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.80%, actual +0.26%.
Result +0.26% @ 7748.50
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.20%, actual +0.74%.
Result +0.73% @ 29742.60
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.50%, actual -0.04%.
Result -0.04% @ 53770.27
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.50%, actual +0.61%.
Result +0.61% @ 3045.48
We said
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What happened
Predicted +5.50%, actual -4.78%.
Result -4.78% @ 14.55
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.30%, actual +0.18%.
Result +0.18% @ 100.00
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.02%, actual -0.04%.
Result -0.04% @ 4.68
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.60%, actual -0.43%.
Result -0.43% @ 82.84
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.70%, actual +1.93%.
Result +1.94% @ 4467.80
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.10%, actual +1.06%.
Result +1.06% @ 65.45
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.80%, actual -0.13%.
Result -0.13% @ 63468.00
We said
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What happened
Predicted -2.20%, actual +0.07%.
Result +0.07% @ 1882.66
We said
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What happened
Predicted +1.50%, actual +1.08%.
Result +1.08% @ 2.80
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Stop 24.68 hit — -1.82%.
Result -1.81% @ 25.71
We said
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What happened
Stop 122.4 hit — -1.25%.
Result -1.25% @ 123.88
We said
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What happened
Limit at 119.4 not filled (day range 117.55–119.32).
Result 0.00% @ 117.89
We said
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What happened
Stop 84.31 hit — -0.45%.
Result -0.45% @ 85.08
We said
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What happened
Stop 46.69 hit — -1.50%.
Result -1.50% @ 46.56
We said
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What happened
Limit at 43.63 not filled (day range 43.64–43.96).
Result 0.00% @ 43.84
We said
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What happened
Stop 225.58 hit — -1.84%.
Result -1.84% @ 245.89
We said
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What happened
Limit at 14.99 not filled (day range 14.28–14.82).
Result 0.00% @ 14.45
We said
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What happened
Stop 138.29 hit — -0.94%.
Result -0.94% @ 140.73
We said
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What happened
Target 127.1 hit — +1.20%.
Result +1.20% @ 127.30
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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AMCR closed -1.77%.
Result -1.77% @ 46.56
We said
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What happened
PFGC closed -5.61%.
Result -5.61% @ 107.41
We said
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What happened
COP closed +1.10%.
Result +1.10% @ 127.30
We said
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What happened
XOM closed -0.03%.
Result -0.03% @ 159.75
We said
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What happened
CNX closed -1.08%.
Result -1.08% @ 35.74
We said
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What happened
EQT closed -0.57%.
Result -0.57% @ 54.06
We said
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What happened
MCD closed +0.57%.
Result +0.56% @ 275.70
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What happened
KO closed +0.27%.
Result +0.27% @ 86.71
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What happened
VZ closed -0.61%.
Result -0.61% @ 46.98
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What happened
DUK closed +0.24%.
Result +0.24% @ 123.49
We said
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What happened
REZI closed +6.20%.
Result +6.20% @ 25.71
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What happened
TBBB closed +2.08%.
Result +2.08% @ 42.30
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What happened
CSCO closed +2.86%.
Result +2.87% @ 123.88
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What happened
EAT closed +11.07%.
Result +11.07% @ 245.89
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What happened
VIPS closed -6.23%.
Result -6.23% @ 14.45
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What happened
SHOP closed -1.44%.
Result -1.44% @ 150.41
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What happened
ZM closed -1.93%.
Result -1.93% @ 105.13
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What happened
RBLX closed -1.88%.
Result -1.88% @ 35.54
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What happened
COHR closed +8.24%.
Result +8.24% @ 355.64
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What happened
PLD closed +0.88%.
Result +0.88% @ 140.73
We said
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What happened
CSCO closed +2.86%.
Result +2.87% @ 123.88
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What happened
REZI closed +6.20%.
Result +6.20% @ 25.71
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What happened
VIPS closed -6.23%.
Result -6.23% @ 14.45
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What happened
EAT closed +11.07%.
Result +11.07% @ 245.89
We said
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What happened
TBBB closed +2.08%.
Result +2.08% @ 42.30
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.26%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.26%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.26%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.26%).
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What happened
Called bullish; SPX up (+0.26%).
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.26%).
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.26%).
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.26%).
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.26%).
We said
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What happened
Called bullish; SPX up (+0.26%).
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
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What happened
Called inline (65% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.23 vs est 1.216).
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.22 vs est 1.1937).
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What happened
Called miss (30% beat); actual miss (EPS 3.07 vs est 3.1175).
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What happened
Called inline (60% beat); actual miss (EPS 1.59 vs est 1.6338).
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What happened
Called miss (25% beat); actual inline (EPS 4.68 vs est 4.7007).
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What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.74 vs est 1.6474).
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What happened
Called miss (20% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.65 vs est 0.6171).
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What happened
Called miss (25% beat); actual beat (EPS -4.76 vs est -4.7192).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (30% beat); actual beat (EPS -0.3 vs est -0.357).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (35% beat); actual beat (EPS 0 vs est -0.0765).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.31 vs est 0.1623).
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What happened
Called beat (45% beat); actual beat (EPS -0.77 vs est -0.8952).
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What happened
Called miss (20% beat); actual beat (EPS -0.81 vs est -0.8806).
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What happened
Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.