The Report Card · Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Yields Reassert Their Dominance as the Market's True Policymaker
Rising long-end Treasury yields will continue to weigh on growth-sensitive assets and consumer discretionary names throughout Tuesday's session, despite any temporary relief in inflation readings.
Accuracy
58%
Correct
38/65
Brier score
0.254
lower is better
We got 38 of 65 calls right on Tuesday, August 11, 2026.
By Category
7/13
54% accuracy
3/9
33% accuracy
14/25
56% accuracy
5/7
71% accuracy
9/11
82% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.80%, actual -0.32%.
Result -0.32% @ 7728.20
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.20%, actual -0.33%.
Result -0.33% @ 29525.48
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.60%, actual -0.34%.
Result -0.34% @ 53791.85
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.50%, actual +0.32%.
Result +0.32% @ 3027.12
We said
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What happened
Predicted +5.00%, actual -1.16%.
Result -1.16% @ 15.28
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.30%, actual +0.01%.
Result +0.01% @ 99.82
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.02%, actual -0.32%.
Result -0.32% @ 4.68
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.70%, actual +1.57%.
Result +1.57% @ 83.42
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.30%, actual +1.54%.
Result +1.54% @ 4428.90
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.50%, actual -0.38%.
Result -0.38% @ 64.86
We said
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What happened
Predicted -2.00%, actual -0.45%.
Result -0.45% @ 63621.02
We said
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What happened
Predicted -2.50%, actual +0.41%.
Result +0.41% @ 1878.87
We said
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What happened
Predicted +1.50%, actual -1.57%.
Result -1.57% @ 2.75
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Stop 334.43 hit — -1.25%.
Result -1.25% @ 332.81
We said
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What happened
Closed 119.24 for +0.36%.
Result +0.36% @ 119.24
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What happened
Closed 31.60 for +0.57%.
Result +0.57% @ 31.60
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What happened
Target 59.43 hit — +1.50%.
Result +1.50% @ 59.06
We said
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What happened
Closed 82.19 for -0.15%.
Result -0.15% @ 82.19
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What happened
Stop 145.8 hit — -0.40%.
Result -0.40% @ 145.21
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What happened
Closed 474.32 for -0.85%.
Result -0.85% @ 474.32
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What happened
Stop 120.88 hit — -0.39%.
Result -0.39% @ 123.19
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What happened
Stop 236.96 hit — -0.60%.
Result -0.60% @ 240.26
We said
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What happened
Limit at 64060.21 not filled (day range 63621.02–63621.02).
Result 0.00% @ 63621.02
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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OXY closed +0.70%.
Result +0.70% @ 59.06
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What happened
DUK closed +1.65%.
Result +1.65% @ 123.19
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What happened
COP closed +2.35%.
Result +2.35% @ 125.92
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What happened
PG closed -0.84%.
Result -0.84% @ 145.21
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What happened
CVX closed +0.90%.
Result +0.90% @ 196.66
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What happened
WM closed +0.11%.
Result +0.11% @ 226.85
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What happened
HON closed -5.27%.
Result -5.27% @ 230.12
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What happened
GIS closed +1.80%.
Result +1.80% @ 37.93
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What happened
PM closed +0.12%.
Result +0.12% @ 186.22
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What happened
GS closed -0.01%.
Result -0.01% @ 1034.41
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What happened
TSLA closed +0.58%.
Result +0.58% @ 332.81
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What happened
NVDA closed -0.02%.
Result -0.02% @ 217.50
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What happened
AMZN closed -2.09%.
Result -2.09% @ 272.27
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What happened
CVNA closed -2.91%.
Result -2.91% @ 72.00
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What happened
SMCI closed +0.45%.
Result +0.45% @ 31.60
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What happened
ROKU closed -0.61%.
Result -0.61% @ 150.91
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What happened
PTON closed +1.63%.
Result +1.63% @ 5.60
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What happened
SQ closed 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
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What happened
W closed -0.06%.
Result -0.06% @ 103.20
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What happened
Z closed +1.16%.
Result +1.16% @ 34.14
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What happened
SMCI closed +0.45%.
Result +0.45% @ 31.60
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What happened
PAGS closed -2.09%.
Result -2.09% @ 8.89
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What happened
SE closed +14.56%.
Result +14.56% @ 131.51
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What happened
CAH closed +1.30%.
Result +1.30% @ 240.26
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What happened
ARMK closed +8.54%.
Result +8.54% @ 60.47
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.32%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.32%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX down (-0.32%).
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.32%).
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.32%).
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Called bullish; SPX down (-0.32%).
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Called bullish; SPX down (-0.32%).
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Called mixed; SPX down (-0.32%).
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX down (-0.32%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.32%).
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
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What happened
Not yet reported.
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.7 vs est 0.9767).
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What happened
Called beat (45% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.86 vs est 0.7854).
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Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.52 vs est 0.495).
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 2.91 vs est 2.4443).
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What happened
Called beat (40% beat); actual miss (EPS 2.03 vs est 2.0866).
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.19 vs est 0.186).
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What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.35706 vs est 0.3439).
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What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.68665 vs est 1.6166).
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.51 vs est 0.5008).
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What happened
Called miss (35% beat); actual beat (EPS -0.07 vs est -0.0821).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 6.02 vs est 5.8277).
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What happened
Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.