The Day Before
← Edition for Tuesday, August 11, 2026

The Report Card · Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Yields Reassert Their Dominance as the Market's True Policymaker

Rising long-end Treasury yields will continue to weigh on growth-sensitive assets and consumer discretionary names throughout Tuesday's session, despite any temporary relief in inflation readings.

C

Accuracy

58%

Correct

38/65

Brier score

0.254

lower is better

By Category

ForecastsD

7/13

54% accuracy

TradesD

3/9

33% accuracy

PredictionsC

14/25

56% accuracy

DriversB

5/7

71% accuracy

EarningsB

9/11

82% accuracy

Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened

C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.80%, actual -0.32%.

Result -0.32% @ 7728.20

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -1.20%, actual -0.33%.

Result -0.33% @ 29525.48

Right
B

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.60%, actual -0.34%.

Result -0.34% @ 53791.85

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -1.50%, actual +0.32%.

Result +0.32% @ 3027.12

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +5.00%, actual -1.16%.

Result -1.16% @ 15.28

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.30%, actual +0.01%.

Result +0.01% @ 99.82

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.02%, actual -0.32%.

Result -0.32% @ 4.68

Wrong
D

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.70%, actual +1.57%.

Result +1.57% @ 83.42

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.30%, actual +1.54%.

Result +1.54% @ 4428.90

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.50%, actual -0.38%.

Result -0.38% @ 64.86

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -2.00%, actual -0.45%.

Result -0.45% @ 63621.02

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -2.50%, actual +0.41%.

Result +0.41% @ 1878.87

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +1.50%, actual -1.57%.

Result -1.57% @ 2.75

Wrong

Trades — what we said vs. what happened

F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 334.43 hit — -1.25%.

Result -1.25% @ 332.81

Wrong
B

We said

—

What happened

Closed 119.24 for +0.36%.

Result +0.36% @ 119.24

Right
B

We said

—

What happened

Closed 31.60 for +0.57%.

Result +0.57% @ 31.60

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Target 59.43 hit — +1.50%.

Result +1.50% @ 59.06

Right
D

We said

—

What happened

Closed 82.19 for -0.15%.

Result -0.15% @ 82.19

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 145.8 hit — -0.40%.

Result -0.40% @ 145.21

Wrong
D

We said

—

What happened

Closed 474.32 for -0.85%.

Result -0.85% @ 474.32

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 120.88 hit — -0.39%.

Result -0.39% @ 123.19

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 236.96 hit — -0.60%.

Result -0.60% @ 240.26

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

Limit at 64060.21 not filled (day range 63621.02–63621.02).

Result 0.00% @ 63621.02

No call

Predictions — what we said vs. what happened

—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
A

We said

—

What happened

OXY closed +0.70%.

Result +0.70% @ 59.06

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

DUK closed +1.65%.

Result +1.65% @ 123.19

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

COP closed +2.35%.

Result +2.35% @ 125.92

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

PG closed -0.84%.

Result -0.84% @ 145.21

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

CVX closed +0.90%.

Result +0.90% @ 196.66

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

WM closed +0.11%.

Result +0.11% @ 226.85

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

HON closed -5.27%.

Result -5.27% @ 230.12

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

GIS closed +1.80%.

Result +1.80% @ 37.93

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

PM closed +0.12%.

Result +0.12% @ 186.22

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

GS closed -0.01%.

Result -0.01% @ 1034.41

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

TSLA closed +0.58%.

Result +0.58% @ 332.81

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

NVDA closed -0.02%.

Result -0.02% @ 217.50

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

AMZN closed -2.09%.

Result -2.09% @ 272.27

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

CVNA closed -2.91%.

Result -2.91% @ 72.00

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

SMCI closed +0.45%.

Result +0.45% @ 31.60

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

ROKU closed -0.61%.

Result -0.61% @ 150.91

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

PTON closed +1.63%.

Result +1.63% @ 5.60

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

SQ closed 0.00%.

Result 0.00%

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

W closed -0.06%.

Result -0.06% @ 103.20

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Z closed +1.16%.

Result +1.16% @ 34.14

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

SMCI closed +0.45%.

Result +0.45% @ 31.60

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

PAGS closed -2.09%.

Result -2.09% @ 8.89

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

SE closed +14.56%.

Result +14.56% @ 131.51

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

CAH closed +1.30%.

Result +1.30% @ 240.26

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

ARMK closed +8.54%.

Result +8.54% @ 60.47

Right
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

Drivers — what we said vs. what happened

A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.32%).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.32%).

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX down (-0.32%).

No call
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.32%).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.32%).

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Called bullish; SPX down (-0.32%).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called bullish; SPX down (-0.32%).

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX down (-0.32%).

No call
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX down (-0.32%).

No call
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.32%).

Right

Earnings — what we said vs. what happened

—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.7 vs est 0.9767).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (45% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.86 vs est 0.7854).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.52 vs est 0.495).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 2.91 vs est 2.4443).

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (40% beat); actual miss (EPS 2.03 vs est 2.0866).

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.19 vs est 0.186).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.35706 vs est 0.3439).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.68665 vs est 1.6166).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.51 vs est 0.5008).

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Called miss (35% beat); actual beat (EPS -0.07 vs est -0.0821).

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 6.02 vs est 5.8277).

Right
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call

Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.