The Report Card · Monday, August 10, 2026
A fragile calm as rate hike echoes through the real economy
The market will likely consolidate recent losses on Monday as investors continue to digest the implications of tighter financial conditions on corporate earnings and consumer spending.
Accuracy
48%
Correct
28/58
Brier score
0.212
lower is better
We got 28 of 58 calls right on Monday, August 10, 2026.
By Category
12/13
92% accuracy
1/8
13% accuracy
9/25
36% accuracy
6/6
100% accuracy
0/6
0% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.80%, actual -0.06%.
Result -0.06% @ 7753.11
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.10%, actual -0.34%.
Result -0.34% @ 29621.80
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.60%, actual -0.11%.
Result -0.11% @ 53975.98
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.30%, actual -0.56%.
Result -0.56% @ 3017.40
We said
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What happened
Predicted +3.00%, actual +3.76%.
Result +3.76% @ 15.46
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.30%, actual +0.22%.
Result +0.22% @ 99.82
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.02%, actual +0.84%.
Result +0.84% @ 4.70
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.50%, actual +5.15%.
Result +5.16% @ 82.21
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.40%, actual +2.46%.
Result +2.46% @ 4447.40
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.20%, actual +4.05%.
Result +4.05% @ 65.90
We said
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What happened
Predicted -2.50%, actual -1.24%.
Result -1.24% @ 64043.51
We said
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What happened
Predicted -3.00%, actual -1.62%.
Result -1.62% @ 1877.84
We said
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What happened
Predicted +1.20%, actual +4.32%.
Result +4.32% @ 2.78
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Stop 91.23 hit — -0.45%.
Result -0.45% @ 90.59
We said
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What happened
Closed 720.87 for +0.25%.
Result +0.25% @ 720.87
We said
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What happened
Stop 260.25 hit — -1.39%.
Result -1.39% @ 263.78
We said
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What happened
Stop 43.4 hit — -0.48%.
Result -0.48% @ 43.13
We said
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What happened
Stop 2.22 hit — -1.83%.
Result -1.83% @ 2.11
We said
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What happened
Limit at 110.52 not filled (day range 107.85–110.09).
Result 0.00% @ 108.24
We said
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What happened
Stop 397.14 hit — -0.33%.
Result -0.33% @ 402.54
We said
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What happened
Stop 31.71 hit — -1.86%.
Result -1.86% @ 31.46
We said
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What happened
Stop 56.31 hit — -0.72%.
Result -0.71% @ 58.65
We said
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What happened
Limit at 153.93 not filled (day range 147.90–153.61).
Result 0.00% @ 148.68
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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What happened
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NEE closed +0.06%.
Result +0.06% @ 84.70
We said
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What happened
GD closed +1.00%.
Result +1.00% @ 395.97
We said
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What happened
VZ closed -0.06%.
Result -0.06% @ 47.03
We said
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What happened
WM closed -0.47%.
Result -0.47% @ 226.60
We said
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What happened
SHW closed -1.90%.
Result -1.90% @ 362.71
We said
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What happened
K closed 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
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What happened
PEP closed -0.93%.
Result -0.93% @ 137.73
We said
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What happened
ABT closed +0.75%.
Result +0.75% @ 108.62
We said
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What happened
DUK closed -2.93%.
Result -2.93% @ 121.19
We said
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What happened
MO closed -4.11%.
Result -4.11% @ 65.54
We said
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What happened
TSLA closed +0.70%.
Result +0.70% @ 330.88
We said
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What happened
NIO closed +1.69%.
Result +1.69% @ 4.82
We said
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What happened
PLUG closed -3.21%.
Result -3.21% @ 2.11
We said
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What happened
RIVN closed +2.44%.
Result +2.44% @ 16.39
We said
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What happened
CRM closed +2.47%.
Result +2.48% @ 197.51
We said
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What happened
UBER closed +4.01%.
Result +4.01% @ 78.03
We said
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What happened
FSLR closed -4.29%.
Result -4.29% @ 239.33
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What happened
CHMI closed +15.77%.
Result +15.77% @ 2.79
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What happened
CVNA closed +4.67%.
Result +4.67% @ 74.16
We said
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What happened
DKNG closed +1.00%.
Result +1.00% @ 24.27
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What happened
FERG closed +2.76%.
Result +2.76% @ 263.78
We said
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What happened
JBS closed -5.76%.
Result -5.76% @ 13.41
We said
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What happened
KSPI closed +4.10%.
Result +4.10% @ 94.00
We said
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What happened
PLUG closed -3.21%.
Result -3.21% @ 2.11
We said
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What happened
RKLB closed -3.37%.
Result -3.37% @ 80.04
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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What happened
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.06%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.06%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.06%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.06%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX down (-0.06%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX down (-0.06%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX down (-0.06%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.06%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX down (-0.06%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.06%).
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Called inline (30% beat); actual beat (EPS 3.39 vs est 3.3541).
We said
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What happened
Called inline (40% beat); actual miss (EPS 0.2 vs est 0.236).
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What happened
Called inline (35% beat); actual miss (EPS 1457.684 vs est 1725.418).
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What happened
Called inline (25% beat); actual beat (EPS -0.07 vs est -0.0786).
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What happened
Called inline (30% beat); actual beat (EPS -0.03 vs est -0.0765).
We said
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What happened
Called inline (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 3.29 vs est 1.6907).
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What happened
Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.