The Day Before
← Edition for Monday, August 10, 2026

The Report Card · Monday, August 10, 2026

A fragile calm as rate hike echoes through the real economy

The market will likely consolidate recent losses on Monday as investors continue to digest the implications of tighter financial conditions on corporate earnings and consumer spending.

D

Accuracy

48%

Correct

28/58

Brier score

0.212

lower is better

By Category

ForecastsD

12/13

92% accuracy

TradesF

1/8

13% accuracy

PredictionsD

9/25

36% accuracy

DriversA

6/6

100% accuracy

EarningsF

0/6

0% accuracy

Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened

C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.80%, actual -0.06%.

Result -0.06% @ 7753.11

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -1.10%, actual -0.34%.

Result -0.34% @ 29621.80

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.60%, actual -0.11%.

Result -0.11% @ 53975.98

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -1.30%, actual -0.56%.

Result -0.56% @ 3017.40

Right
B

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +3.00%, actual +3.76%.

Result +3.76% @ 15.46

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.30%, actual +0.22%.

Result +0.22% @ 99.82

Right
D

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.02%, actual +0.84%.

Result +0.84% @ 4.70

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.50%, actual +5.15%.

Result +5.16% @ 82.21

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.40%, actual +2.46%.

Result +2.46% @ 4447.40

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.20%, actual +4.05%.

Result +4.05% @ 65.90

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -2.50%, actual -1.24%.

Result -1.24% @ 64043.51

Right
B

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -3.00%, actual -1.62%.

Result -1.62% @ 1877.84

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +1.20%, actual +4.32%.

Result +4.32% @ 2.78

Right

Trades — what we said vs. what happened

F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 91.23 hit — -0.45%.

Result -0.45% @ 90.59

Wrong
B

We said

—

What happened

Closed 720.87 for +0.25%.

Result +0.25% @ 720.87

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 260.25 hit — -1.39%.

Result -1.39% @ 263.78

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 43.4 hit — -0.48%.

Result -0.48% @ 43.13

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 2.22 hit — -1.83%.

Result -1.83% @ 2.11

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

Limit at 110.52 not filled (day range 107.85–110.09).

Result 0.00% @ 108.24

No call
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 397.14 hit — -0.33%.

Result -0.33% @ 402.54

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 31.71 hit — -1.86%.

Result -1.86% @ 31.46

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 56.31 hit — -0.72%.

Result -0.71% @ 58.65

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

Limit at 153.93 not filled (day range 147.90–153.61).

Result 0.00% @ 148.68

No call

Predictions — what we said vs. what happened

—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
A

We said

—

What happened

NEE closed +0.06%.

Result +0.06% @ 84.70

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

GD closed +1.00%.

Result +1.00% @ 395.97

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

VZ closed -0.06%.

Result -0.06% @ 47.03

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

WM closed -0.47%.

Result -0.47% @ 226.60

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

SHW closed -1.90%.

Result -1.90% @ 362.71

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

K closed 0.00%.

Result 0.00%

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

PEP closed -0.93%.

Result -0.93% @ 137.73

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

ABT closed +0.75%.

Result +0.75% @ 108.62

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

DUK closed -2.93%.

Result -2.93% @ 121.19

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

MO closed -4.11%.

Result -4.11% @ 65.54

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

TSLA closed +0.70%.

Result +0.70% @ 330.88

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

NIO closed +1.69%.

Result +1.69% @ 4.82

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

PLUG closed -3.21%.

Result -3.21% @ 2.11

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

RIVN closed +2.44%.

Result +2.44% @ 16.39

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

CRM closed +2.47%.

Result +2.48% @ 197.51

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

UBER closed +4.01%.

Result +4.01% @ 78.03

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

FSLR closed -4.29%.

Result -4.29% @ 239.33

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

CHMI closed +15.77%.

Result +15.77% @ 2.79

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

CVNA closed +4.67%.

Result +4.67% @ 74.16

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

DKNG closed +1.00%.

Result +1.00% @ 24.27

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

FERG closed +2.76%.

Result +2.76% @ 263.78

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

JBS closed -5.76%.

Result -5.76% @ 13.41

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

KSPI closed +4.10%.

Result +4.10% @ 94.00

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

PLUG closed -3.21%.

Result -3.21% @ 2.11

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

RKLB closed -3.37%.

Result -3.37% @ 80.04

Right
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

Drivers — what we said vs. what happened

A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.06%).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.06%).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.06%).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.06%).

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX down (-0.06%).

No call
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX down (-0.06%).

No call
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX down (-0.06%).

No call
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.06%).

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX down (-0.06%).

No call
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.06%).

Right

Earnings — what we said vs. what happened

F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (30% beat); actual beat (EPS 3.39 vs est 3.3541).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (40% beat); actual miss (EPS 0.2 vs est 0.236).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (35% beat); actual miss (EPS 1457.684 vs est 1725.418).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (25% beat); actual beat (EPS -0.07 vs est -0.0786).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (30% beat); actual beat (EPS -0.03 vs est -0.0765).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 3.29 vs est 1.6907).

Wrong
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call

Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.