The Report Card · Friday, August 7, 2026
A Friday Fading of Enthusiasm
Markets are likely to close lower on Friday as the prior session's transient optimism gives way to renewed inflation concerns and the gravitational pull of higher-for-longer rates.
Accuracy
25%
Correct
18/73
Brier score
0.352
lower is better
By Category
1/13
8% accuracy
0/9
0% accuracy
9/25
36% accuracy
1/6
17% accuracy
7/20
35% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.75%, actual +0.62%.
Result +0.62% @ 7757.64
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.10%, actual +1.19%.
Result +1.19% @ 29722.30
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.60%, actual +0.28%.
Result +0.28% @ 54036.93
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.20%, actual +1.10%.
Result +1.10% @ 3034.49
We said
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What happened
Predicted +3.50%, actual -1.65%.
Result -1.65% @ 14.90
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.30%, actual -0.36%.
Result -0.36% @ 99.61
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.50%, actual -0.21%.
Result -0.21% @ 4.66
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.80%, actual -0.44%.
Result -0.44% @ 76.95
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.40%, actual +3.69%.
Result +3.69% @ 4398.50
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.80%, actual +3.66%.
Result +3.66% @ 63.69
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.50%, actual +1.00%.
Result +1.00% @ 64906.61
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.80%, actual +0.66%.
Result +0.66% @ 1914.62
We said
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What happened
Predicted 0.00%, actual +1.17%.
Result +1.17% @ 2.67
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Stop 38.03 hit — -1.20%.
Result -1.20% @ 37.40
We said
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What happened
Limit at 76.63 not filled (day range 75.84–76.56).
Result 0.00% @ 76.21
We said
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What happened
Closed 104.69 for -0.24%.
Result -0.24% @ 104.69
We said
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What happened
Stop 84.29 hit — -0.84%.
Result -0.83% @ 85.12
We said
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What happened
Stop 43.16 hit — -0.71%.
Result -0.71% @ 43.61
We said
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What happened
Stop 578.98 hit — -1.05%.
Result -1.05% @ 582.70
We said
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What happened
Stop 391.48 hit — -0.50%.
Result -0.50% @ 398.47
We said
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What happened
Closed 90.82 for -0.78%.
Result -0.78% @ 90.82
We said
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What happened
Stop 57.88 hit — -0.46%.
Result -0.46% @ 57.50
We said
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What happened
Closed 79.61 for -0.16%.
Result -0.16% @ 79.61
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
RTX closed -0.10%.
Result -0.10% @ 223.03
We said
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What happened
NVDA closed +2.27%.
Result +2.27% @ 223.96
We said
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What happened
XOM closed -1.16%.
Result -1.16% @ 153.04
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
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We said
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What happened
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What happened
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What happened
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What happened
LMT closed +0.88%.
Result +0.88% @ 587.95
We said
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What happened
SO closed -0.23%.
Result -0.23% @ 92.69
We said
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What happened
WMT closed -0.20%.
Result -0.20% @ 111.85
We said
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What happened
COP closed +0.73%.
Result +0.73% @ 117.61
We said
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What happened
DUK closed +0.77%.
Result +0.77% @ 124.85
We said
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What happened
GIS closed +2.27%.
Result +2.27% @ 36.89
We said
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What happened
KMI closed -1.37%.
Result -1.38% @ 30.85
We said
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What happened
WM closed -0.58%.
Result -0.58% @ 227.68
We said
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What happened
TSLA closed +2.83%.
Result +2.83% @ 328.58
We said
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What happened
CRM closed +3.20%.
Result +3.20% @ 192.74
We said
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What happened
UAA closed -4.53%.
Result -4.53% @ 6.11
We said
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What happened
RMBS closed +3.93%.
Result +3.93% @ 101.52
We said
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What happened
PHM closed +2.59%.
Result +2.59% @ 132.90
We said
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What happened
TTWO closed +6.04%.
Result +6.04% @ 246.50
We said
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What happened
Z closed +0.54%.
Result +0.54% @ 33.61
We said
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What happened
MRO closed 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
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What happened
LEN closed +3.96%.
Result +3.96% @ 88.18
We said
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What happened
TTWO closed +6.04%.
Result +6.04% @ 246.50
We said
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What happened
UAA closed -4.53%.
Result -4.53% @ 6.11
We said
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What happened
PAGP closed -2.52%.
Result -2.52% @ 24.74
We said
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What happened
OKLO closed +14.77%.
Result +14.77% @ 48.42
We said
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What happened
ROAD closed +19.55%.
Result +19.55% @ 119.74
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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What happened
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.62%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.62%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.62%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.62%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.62%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.62%).
We said
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What happened
Called bullish; SPX up (+0.62%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.62%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.62%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.62%).
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Called miss (30% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.36 vs est 0.3362).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (45% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.91 vs est 0.7083).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual miss (EPS -0.37 vs est 0.248).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual miss (EPS 0.33 vs est 0.3473).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (35% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.05 vs est 0.0176).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 2.87 vs est 1.3526).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual inline (EPS 0.64 vs est 0.6389).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.18 vs est 0.1651).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual miss (EPS 0.16 vs est 0.1647).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual miss (EPS 0.04 vs est 0.153).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS -0.05 vs est -0.1326).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (35% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.32 vs est 0.1764).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.86 vs est 1.2524).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (30% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.21 vs est -0.1086).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.06 vs est 0.0069).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (45% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.08 vs est 1.0676).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual miss (EPS 0.03 vs est 0.278).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (35% beat); actual beat (EPS 2.79 vs est 1.4822).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual miss (EPS -0.28 vs est -0.1641).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.4 vs est 0.2329).
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.