The Day Before
← Edition for Thursday, August 6, 2026

The Report Card · Thursday, August 6, 2026

A Narrowing Path for Earnings Growth

Thursday's pre-market earnings reports will reinforce the trend of divergent corporate performance, favoring resilient growth sectors while exposing weakness in industrials and consumer discretionary.

D

Accuracy

41%

Correct

27/66

Brier score

0.253

lower is better

By Category

ForecastsD

9/13

69% accuracy

TradesF

2/7

29% accuracy

PredictionsD

10/25

40% accuracy

DriversB

5/6

83% accuracy

EarningsF

1/15

7% accuracy

Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened

C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.70%, actual -0.18%.

Result -0.18% @ 7709.96

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.50%, actual -0.39%.

Result -0.39% @ 29373.33

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.80%, actual -0.85%.

Result -0.85% @ 53885.10

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -1.20%, actual -0.58%.

Result -0.58% @ 3001.55

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +3.00%, actual -4.17%.

Result -4.17% @ 15.15

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.20%, actual +0.29%.

Result +0.29% @ 99.98

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.01%, actual +1.15%.

Result +1.15% @ 4.67

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -1.50%, actual +3.56%.

Result +3.56% @ 77.90

Wrong
D

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.60%, actual +1.31%.

Result +1.31% @ 4301.50

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.80%, actual -0.39%.

Result -0.39% @ 61.85

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -1.80%, actual -0.28%.

Result -0.28% @ 64419.04

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -2.20%, actual -0.02%.

Result -0.02% @ 1906.09

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -1.00%, actual -1.93%.

Result -1.94% @ 2.64

Right

Trades — what we said vs. what happened

F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 1007.58 hit — -1.07%.

Result -1.07% @ 1069.80

Wrong
B

We said

—

What happened

Closed 184.76 for +0.85%.

Result +0.85% @ 184.76

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Limit at 93.26 not filled (day range 74.57–78.33).

Result 0.00% @ 77.90

No call
B

We said

—

What happened

Closed 118.10 for +0.46%.

Result +0.46% @ 118.10

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 31.28 hit — -1.07%.

Result -1.07% @ 30.37

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 187.84 hit — -0.40%.

Result -0.40% @ 187.64

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 26.46 hit — -1.89%.

Result -1.89% @ 26.40

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 43.52 hit — -0.32%.

Result -0.32% @ 43.38

Wrong

Predictions — what we said vs. what happened

—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
F

We said

—

What happened

ETF closed 0.00%.

Result 0.00%

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

JNJ closed -0.24%.

Result -0.24% @ 256.98

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

ED closed +0.58%.

Result +0.58% @ 108.95

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

GS closed -2.62%.

Result -2.62% @ 1032.58

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

MRK closed +0.03%.

Result +0.03% @ 128.37

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

SO closed -0.21%.

Result -0.21% @ 92.90

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

NEE closed -1.52%.

Result -1.52% @ 84.60

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

RTX closed +0.42%.

Result +0.42% @ 223.25

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

WM closed +2.10%.

Result +2.10% @ 229.01

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

MO closed -1.01%.

Result -1.01% @ 67.75

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

PH closed +7.31%.

Result +7.31% @ 1069.80

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

COP closed +1.50%.

Result +1.50% @ 116.76

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

WBD closed +1.66%.

Result +1.66% @ 26.40

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

KDP closed -1.24%.

Result -1.24% @ 30.37

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

US closed 0.00%.

Result 0.00%

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

FISV closed 0.00%.

Result 0.00% @ 54.11

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

LNG closed +4.32%.

Result +4.32% @ 265.77

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

ARW closed -2.01%.

Result -2.01% @ 222.29

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

PLNT closed -9.51%.

Result -9.51% @ 51.21

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

TWLO closed -0.01%.

Result -0.01% @ 193.20

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

PLNT closed -9.51%.

Result -9.51% @ 51.21

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

WBD closed +1.66%.

Result +1.66% @ 26.40

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

COP closed +1.50%.

Result +1.50% @ 116.76

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

FISV closed 0.00%.

Result 0.00% @ 54.11

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

LNG closed +4.32%.

Result +4.32% @ 265.77

Right
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

Drivers — what we said vs. what happened

A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.18%).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.18%).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.18%).

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX down (-0.18%).

No call
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.18%).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-0.18%).

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX down (-0.18%).

No call
F

We said

—

What happened

Called bullish; SPX down (-0.18%).

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX down (-0.18%).

No call
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX down (-0.18%).

No call

Earnings — what we said vs. what happened

F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 3.24 vs est 2.9112).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (35% beat); actual beat (EPS 9.27 vs est 8.5185).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.06 vs est -0.1259).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 2.55 vs est 2.4459).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (45% beat); actual miss (EPS 1.84 vs est 1.9486).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called miss (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.57 vs est 0.5426).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (45% beat); actual miss (EPS 3.02 vs est 3.0695).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.44 vs est 1.3906).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 2.11 vs est 1.9164).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 5.22 vs est 2.881).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.88 vs est 0.8632).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.37 vs est 1.2769).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (45% beat); actual miss (EPS 0.04 vs est 0.0616).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (50% beat); actual miss (EPS 0.39 vs est 0.4109).

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 6.97 vs est 6.1049).

Right
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call

Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.