The Report Card · Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Earnings season meets a hawkish undercurrent
The confluence of energy sector earnings and persistent inflation concerns suggests a cautious session, favoring defensive plays and continued dollar strength.
Accuracy
53%
Correct
35/66
Brier score
0.276
lower is better
We got 35 of 66 calls right on Wednesday, August 5, 2026.
By Category
4/13
31% accuracy
2/6
33% accuracy
14/25
56% accuracy
7/7
100% accuracy
8/15
53% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.80%, actual -0.17%.
Result -0.17% @ 7723.55
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.20%, actual -0.83%.
Result -0.82% @ 29487.79
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.50%, actual +0.49%.
Result +0.49% @ 54349.12
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.50%, actual -0.59%.
Result -0.59% @ 3019.19
We said
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What happened
Predicted +3.50%, actual -4.18%.
Result -4.18% @ 15.81
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.30%, actual -0.17%.
Result -0.17% @ 99.72
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.02%, actual -0.22%.
Result -0.22% @ 4.62
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.70%, actual -0.99%.
Result -0.99% @ 75.02
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.50%, actual +5.19%.
Result +5.19% @ 4307.80
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.10%, actual +3.60%.
Result +3.60% @ 62.22
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.80%, actual +1.30%.
Result +1.30% @ 64887.90
We said
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What happened
Predicted -2.50%, actual +2.64%.
Result +2.64% @ 1917.67
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.90%, actual -0.45%.
Result -0.45% @ 2.67
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Limit at 72.43 not filled (day range 66.74–69.42).
Result 0.00% @ 68.18
We said
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What happened
Stop 100.09 hit — -1.82%.
Result -1.82% @ 101.76
We said
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What happened
Limit at 1124 not filled (day range 1138.43–1216.94).
Result 0.00% @ 1169.86
We said
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What happened
Closed 53.81 for +2.07%.
Result +2.08% @ 53.81
We said
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What happened
Stop 103.75 hit — -1.00%.
Result -1.00% @ 99.12
We said
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What happened
Stop 112.04 hit — -0.50%.
Result -0.50% @ 112.34
We said
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What happened
Stop 6.29 hit — -0.94%.
Result -0.94% @ 2.67
We said
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What happened
Closed 91.42 for +1.01%.
Result +1.01% @ 91.42
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
WMT closed +0.71%.
Result +0.71% @ 112.34
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
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What happened
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What happened
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
LLY closed +4.86%.
Result +4.86% @ 1169.86
We said
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What happened
KO closed +0.31%.
Result +0.31% @ 86.83
We said
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What happened
JNJ closed +1.04%.
Result +1.04% @ 257.59
We said
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What happened
PG closed -0.82%.
Result -0.82% @ 146.80
We said
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What happened
PEP closed -0.23%.
Result -0.23% @ 138.78
We said
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What happened
DUK closed -0.75%.
Result -0.75% @ 123.34
We said
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What happened
NEE closed -1.48%.
Result -1.48% @ 85.91
We said
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What happened
ED closed -0.08%.
Result -0.08% @ 108.32
We said
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What happened
LMT closed -1.99%.
Result -1.99% @ 577.60
We said
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What happened
UBER closed -5.29%.
Result -5.29% @ 68.18
We said
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What happened
DIS closed +3.65%.
Result +3.65% @ 101.76
We said
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What happened
OXY closed -2.32%.
Result -2.32% @ 53.81
We said
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What happened
COP closed -2.46%.
Result -2.46% @ 115.04
We said
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What happened
VLO closed -2.05%.
Result -2.05% @ 302.39
We said
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What happened
TSLA closed -1.77%.
Result -1.77% @ 321.55
We said
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What happened
NFLX closed +0.86%.
Result +0.86% @ 74.20
We said
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What happened
AMZN closed -1.72%.
Result -1.72% @ 272.65
We said
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What happened
COIN closed -0.56%.
Result -0.56% @ 149.89
We said
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What happened
SQ closed 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
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What happened
GLXY closed -13.89%.
Result -13.89% @ 19.07
We said
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What happened
ALL closed +0.77%.
Result +0.77% @ 264.59
We said
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What happened
OXY closed -2.32%.
Result -2.32% @ 53.81
We said
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What happened
DIS closed +3.65%.
Result +3.65% @ 101.76
We said
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What happened
CVS closed -5.08%.
Result -5.08% @ 99.12
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.17%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.17%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.17%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.17%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.17%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.17%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX down (-0.17%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX down (-0.17%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.17%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX down (-0.17%).
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Called miss (35% beat); actual beat (EPS 2.06 vs est 1.879).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (65% beat); actual beat (EPS 2.58 vs est 1.8702).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (70% beat); actual beat (EPS 8.38 vs est 6.0661).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (30% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.17 vs est 0.8309).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.06 vs est 0.5971).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 4.48 vs est 4.3924).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual miss (EPS -0.09 vs est -0.0262).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (45% beat); actual beat (EPS 9.41 vs est 7.5136).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 8.99 vs est 6.1822).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (65% beat); actual beat (EPS 9.93 vs est 9.6305).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 2.43 vs est 2.3159).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual miss (EPS 8.23 vs est 8.834).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.89 vs est 0.6317).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.56 vs est 0.5344).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.42 vs est 0.4107).
We said
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What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
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What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
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What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
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What happened
Not yet reported.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.