← Edition for Tuesday, August 4, 2026

The Report Card · Tuesday, August 4, 2026

A Summer Lull Yields to Rate Reality

Disappointing manufacturing data and persistent inflation fears will see equities drift lower as bond yields consolidate their recent gains.

F

Accuracy

23%

Correct

12/52

Brier score

0.367

lower is better

We got 12 of 52 calls right on Tuesday, August 4, 2026.

By Category

ForecastsF

4/13

31% accuracy

TradesF

0/8

0% accuracy

PredictionsD

8/25

32% accuracy

DriversF

0/6

0% accuracy

Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened

F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.70%, actual +1.79%.

Result +1.79% @ 7736.52

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -1.10%, actual +3.32%.

Result +3.32% @ 29733.16

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.50%, actual +1.71%.

Result +1.71% @ 54085.88

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -1.20%, actual +1.85%.

Result +1.85% @ 3036.98

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +3.50%, actual +4.04%.

Result +4.04% @ 16.50

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.30%, actual -0.11%.

Result -0.11% @ 99.85

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.03%, actual -1.26%.

Result -1.26% @ 4.63

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.80%, actual -6.26%.

Result -6.26% @ 75.31

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.40%, actual +2.44%.

Result +2.44% @ 4132.00

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.10%, actual +3.52%.

Result +3.52% @ 59.70

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -1.50%, actual +1.06%.

Result +1.06% @ 64134.41

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -2.00%, actual +0.73%.

Result +0.73% @ 1871.79

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +1.20%, actual -3.63%.

Result -3.63% @ 2.68

Wrong

Trades — what we said vs. what happened

F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 208.6 hit — -1.00%.

Result -1.00% @ 211.94

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 325.58 hit — -0.91%.

Result -0.91% @ 327.35

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 184.85 hit — -0.90%.

Result -0.90% @ 186.40

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 149.2 hit — -1.22%.

Result -1.22% @ 150.73

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 92.38 hit — -0.67%.

Result -0.67% @ 93.25

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

Limit at 42.25 not filled (day range 42.60–43.88).

Result 0.00% @ 42.69

No call
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 148.12 hit — -1.00%.

Result -0.99% @ 150.37

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

Limit at 229.16 not filled (day range 224.03–228.50).

Result 0.00% @ 225.90

No call
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 144.31 hit — -0.53%.

Result -0.53% @ 148.01

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 110.15 hit — -0.50%.

Result -0.50% @ 111.55

Wrong

Predictions — what we said vs. what happened

—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
A

We said

—

What happened

SO closed +0.33%.

Result +0.33% @ 93.25

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

DUK closed -0.01%.

Result -0.01% @ 124.27

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

GOLD closed +1.33%.

Result +1.33% @ 42.69

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

NEM closed +2.47%.

Result +2.48% @ 97.73

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

WM closed -0.52%.

Result -0.52% @ 225.25

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

PG closed +2.10%.

Result +2.10% @ 148.01

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

KO closed -0.35%.

Result -0.34% @ 86.56

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

LMT closed +0.52%.

Result +0.52% @ 589.33

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

GD closed +0.87%.

Result +0.87% @ 385.76

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

CL closed -6.26%.

Result -6.26% @ 75.31

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

NVDA closed +2.56%.

Result +2.56% @ 211.94

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

TSLA closed +1.64%.

Result +1.64% @ 327.35

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

AMZN closed -2.32%.

Result -2.32% @ 277.42

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

CAT closed +5.60%.

Result +5.60% @ 876.54

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

DE closed +2.03%.

Result +2.04% @ 617.37

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

COIN closed +2.89%.

Result +2.89% @ 150.73

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

SQ closed 0.00%.

Result 0.00%

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

D closed +0.68%.

Result +0.68% @ 69.22

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

LEN closed +2.14%.

Result +2.14% @ 87.02

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

FDX closed +1.33%.

Result +1.33% @ 313.34

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

XLI closed +1.77%.

Result +1.77% @ 186.40

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

KRE closed +1.01%.

Result +1.01% @ 77.84

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

SMH closed +5.55%.

Result +5.55% @ 575.71

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

XLE closed -0.46%.

Result -0.46% @ 58.52

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

HYG closed +0.30%.

Result +0.30% @ 79.55

Wrong
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

Drivers — what we said vs. what happened

F

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX up (+1.79%).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX up (+1.79%).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX up (+1.79%).

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX up (+1.79%).

No call
F

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX up (+1.79%).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX up (+1.79%).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX up (+1.79%).

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX up (+1.79%).

No call
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX up (+1.79%).

No call
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX up (+1.79%).

No call

Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.