The Report Card · Tuesday, August 4, 2026
A Summer Lull Yields to Rate Reality
Disappointing manufacturing data and persistent inflation fears will see equities drift lower as bond yields consolidate their recent gains.
Accuracy
23%
Correct
12/52
Brier score
0.367
lower is better
We got 12 of 52 calls right on Tuesday, August 4, 2026.
By Category
4/13
31% accuracy
0/8
0% accuracy
8/25
32% accuracy
0/6
0% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.70%, actual +1.79%.
Result +1.79% @ 7736.52
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.10%, actual +3.32%.
Result +3.32% @ 29733.16
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.50%, actual +1.71%.
Result +1.71% @ 54085.88
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.20%, actual +1.85%.
Result +1.85% @ 3036.98
We said
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What happened
Predicted +3.50%, actual +4.04%.
Result +4.04% @ 16.50
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.30%, actual -0.11%.
Result -0.11% @ 99.85
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.03%, actual -1.26%.
Result -1.26% @ 4.63
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.80%, actual -6.26%.
Result -6.26% @ 75.31
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.40%, actual +2.44%.
Result +2.44% @ 4132.00
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.10%, actual +3.52%.
Result +3.52% @ 59.70
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.50%, actual +1.06%.
Result +1.06% @ 64134.41
We said
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What happened
Predicted -2.00%, actual +0.73%.
Result +0.73% @ 1871.79
We said
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What happened
Predicted +1.20%, actual -3.63%.
Result -3.63% @ 2.68
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Stop 208.6 hit — -1.00%.
Result -1.00% @ 211.94
We said
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What happened
Stop 325.58 hit — -0.91%.
Result -0.91% @ 327.35
We said
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What happened
Stop 184.85 hit — -0.90%.
Result -0.90% @ 186.40
We said
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What happened
Stop 149.2 hit — -1.22%.
Result -1.22% @ 150.73
We said
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What happened
Stop 92.38 hit — -0.67%.
Result -0.67% @ 93.25
We said
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What happened
Limit at 42.25 not filled (day range 42.60–43.88).
Result 0.00% @ 42.69
We said
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What happened
Stop 148.12 hit — -1.00%.
Result -0.99% @ 150.37
We said
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What happened
Limit at 229.16 not filled (day range 224.03–228.50).
Result 0.00% @ 225.90
We said
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What happened
Stop 144.31 hit — -0.53%.
Result -0.53% @ 148.01
We said
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What happened
Stop 110.15 hit — -0.50%.
Result -0.50% @ 111.55
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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What happened
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What happened
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What happened
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What happened
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What happened
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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What happened
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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SO closed +0.33%.
Result +0.33% @ 93.25
We said
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What happened
DUK closed -0.01%.
Result -0.01% @ 124.27
We said
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What happened
GOLD closed +1.33%.
Result +1.33% @ 42.69
We said
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What happened
NEM closed +2.47%.
Result +2.48% @ 97.73
We said
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What happened
WM closed -0.52%.
Result -0.52% @ 225.25
We said
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What happened
PG closed +2.10%.
Result +2.10% @ 148.01
We said
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What happened
KO closed -0.35%.
Result -0.34% @ 86.56
We said
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What happened
LMT closed +0.52%.
Result +0.52% @ 589.33
We said
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What happened
GD closed +0.87%.
Result +0.87% @ 385.76
We said
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What happened
CL closed -6.26%.
Result -6.26% @ 75.31
We said
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What happened
NVDA closed +2.56%.
Result +2.56% @ 211.94
We said
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What happened
TSLA closed +1.64%.
Result +1.64% @ 327.35
We said
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What happened
AMZN closed -2.32%.
Result -2.32% @ 277.42
We said
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What happened
CAT closed +5.60%.
Result +5.60% @ 876.54
We said
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What happened
DE closed +2.03%.
Result +2.04% @ 617.37
We said
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What happened
COIN closed +2.89%.
Result +2.89% @ 150.73
We said
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What happened
SQ closed 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
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What happened
D closed +0.68%.
Result +0.68% @ 69.22
We said
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What happened
LEN closed +2.14%.
Result +2.14% @ 87.02
We said
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What happened
FDX closed +1.33%.
Result +1.33% @ 313.34
We said
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What happened
XLI closed +1.77%.
Result +1.77% @ 186.40
We said
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What happened
KRE closed +1.01%.
Result +1.01% @ 77.84
We said
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What happened
SMH closed +5.55%.
Result +5.55% @ 575.71
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What happened
XLE closed -0.46%.
Result -0.46% @ 58.52
We said
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What happened
HYG closed +0.30%.
Result +0.30% @ 79.55
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+1.79%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+1.79%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+1.79%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+1.79%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+1.79%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+1.79%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+1.79%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+1.79%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+1.79%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+1.79%).
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.