The Report Card · Friday, July 31, 2026
Energy earnings and PCE data set the stage for a cautious Friday close
Disinflationary trends should cap upside, while strong energy results provide a floor, leading to a mostly flat session for broad indices.
Accuracy
40%
Correct
29/72
Brier score
0.263
lower is better
We got 29 of 72 calls right on Friday, July 31, 2026.
By Category
6/13
46% accuracy
2/10
20% accuracy
9/25
36% accuracy
3/6
50% accuracy
9/18
50% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.15%, actual +0.70%.
Result +0.70% @ 7489.72
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.25%, actual +0.60%.
Result +0.60% @ 28274.20
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.05%, actual +0.53%.
Result +0.53% @ 52485.03
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.30%, actual -0.50%.
Result -0.50% @ 2931.34
We said
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What happened
Predicted +1.50%, actual -6.44%.
Result -6.44% @ 15.99
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.10%, actual -0.21%.
Result -0.21% @ 99.80
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.01%, actual +1.76%.
Result +1.76% @ 4.75
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.70%, actual +1.08%.
Result +1.08% @ 84.49
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.40%, actual +0.11%.
Result +0.11% @ 4104.70
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.20%, actual -1.33%.
Result -1.33% @ 58.03
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.50%, actual -2.75%.
Result -2.75% @ 62948.04
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.60%, actual -2.72%.
Result -2.72% @ 1865.17
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.80%, actual +0.40%.
Result +0.40% @ 2.77
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Target 196.07 hit — +1.80%.
Result +1.80% @ 196.83
We said
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What happened
Stop 155.9 hit — -0.68%.
Result -0.68% @ 155.44
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What happened
Stop 197.14 hit — -0.60%.
Result -0.60% @ 200.75
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What happened
Stop 231.72 hit — -0.56%.
Result -0.56% @ 229.37
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What happened
Stop 256.7 hit — -0.50%.
Result -0.50% @ 250.94
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What happened
Target 108.97 hit — +0.80%.
Result +0.80% @ 109.31
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What happened
Stop 311.94 hit — -1.00%.
Result -1.00% @ 311.21
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What happened
Stop 125.77 hit — -0.41%.
Result -0.41% @ 125.43
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What happened
Stop 16.29 hit — -1.24%.
Result -1.24% @ 15.13
We said
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What happened
Stop 57.28 hit — -1.10%.
Result -1.10% @ 54.82
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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OXY closed +2.00%.
Result +2.00% @ 57.07
We said
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What happened
XOM closed -0.97%.
Result -0.97% @ 155.44
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What happened
DUK closed -0.67%.
Result -0.67% @ 125.43
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What happened
EPD closed -0.18%.
Result -0.18% @ 38.05
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What happened
ED closed -0.74%.
Result -0.74% @ 108.85
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What happened
LLY closed -0.53%.
Result -0.53% @ 1148.84
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What happened
BDX closed +0.10%.
Result +0.10% @ 165.62
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What happened
KMB closed -0.80%.
Result -0.80% @ 109.31
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What happened
KO closed -1.02%.
Result -1.02% @ 87.59
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What happened
WM closed +0.10%.
Result +0.10% @ 226.55
We said
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What happened
NVDA closed +2.93%.
Result +2.93% @ 200.75
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What happened
TSLA closed +0.76%.
Result +0.76% @ 311.21
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What happened
META closed +3.28%.
Result +3.28% @ 556.71
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What happened
PYPL closed -0.76%.
Result -0.76% @ 57.21
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What happened
SQ closed 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
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What happened
CRM closed +1.83%.
Result +1.83% @ 184.02
We said
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What happened
NWL closed +8.95%.
Result +8.95% @ 5.60
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What happened
BKNG closed -0.18%.
Result -0.18% @ 192.90
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What happened
TGT closed -0.01%.
Result -0.01% @ 144.49
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What happened
F closed -1.21%.
Result -1.21% @ 14.68
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What happened
CVX closed +2.35%.
Result +2.35% @ 196.83
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What happened
PYPL closed -0.76%.
Result -0.76% @ 57.21
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What happened
NWL closed +8.95%.
Result +8.95% @ 5.60
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What happened
MRNA closed -5.35%.
Result -5.35% @ 54.82
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What happened
AN closed -1.05%.
Result -1.05% @ 212.40
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.70%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.70%).
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What happened
Called bullish; SPX up (+0.70%).
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What happened
Called bullish; SPX up (+0.70%).
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Called bullish; SPX up (+0.70%).
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Called bearish; SPX up (+0.70%).
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Called mixed; SPX up (+0.70%).
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Called bearish; SPX up (+0.70%).
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Called neutral; SPX up (+0.70%).
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What happened
Called neutral; SPX up (+0.70%).
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
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What happened
Called beat (75% beat); actual beat (EPS 6.06 vs est 5.615).
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Called beat (70% beat); actual inline (EPS 3.65 vs est 3.6761).
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What happened
Called beat (68% beat); actual beat (EPS 3.15 vs est 3.1015).
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS -1.97 vs est -2.1247).
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What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual miss (EPS 20.70665 vs est 33.127).
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual miss (EPS 5.56 vs est 5.6609).
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What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.72 vs est 0.6781).
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What happened
Called beat (68% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.99 vs est 0.9753).
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.79 vs est 0.6887).
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What happened
Called beat (70% beat); actual inline (EPS 4.5 vs est 4.5288).
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What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.42 vs est 0.2003).
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What happened
Called beat (65% beat); actual miss (EPS 0.89 vs est 0.9057).
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Called beat (55% beat); actual miss (EPS 1.98 vs est 2.2485).
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What happened
Called beat (65% beat); actual miss (EPS -0.4 vs est -0.3417).
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Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.45 vs est 0.4046).
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Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 4.28 vs est 3.9988).
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What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 4.3 vs est 3.4478).
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual inline (EPS 2.57 vs est 2.5493).
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.