The Report Card · Thursday, July 30, 2026
Earnings narratives diverge as growth meets rate realities
Thursday's session will see market participants weigh robust tech earnings against lingering concerns over the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and a flattening yield curve.
Accuracy
33%
Correct
23/69
Brier score
0.296
lower is better
We got 23 of 69 calls right on Thursday, July 30, 2026.
By Category
4/13
31% accuracy
2/10
20% accuracy
10/25
40% accuracy
1/7
14% accuracy
6/14
43% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.70%, actual +1.66%.
Result +1.66% @ 7437.63
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.50%, actual +3.36%.
Result +3.36% @ 28106.35
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.00%, actual +1.19%.
Result +1.19% @ 52208.06
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.20%, actual +1.37%.
Result +1.37% @ 2946.10
We said
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What happened
Predicted +3.00%, actual -17.28%.
Result -17.28% @ 17.09
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.30%, actual -0.82%.
Result -0.82% @ 99.97
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.05%, actual +0.89%.
Result +0.89% @ 4.66
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.80%, actual -0.39%.
Result -0.39% @ 84.13
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.60%, actual +3.42%.
Result +3.42% @ 4172.60
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.40%, actual +2.74%.
Result +2.74% @ 59.45
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.50%, actual +1.31%.
Result +1.31% @ 64745.92
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.80%, actual +0.63%.
Result +0.63% @ 1920.49
We said
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What happened
Predicted 0.00%, actual +0.70%.
Result +0.70% @ 2.74
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Stop 87.01 hit — -0.72%.
Result -0.72% @ 85.47
We said
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What happened
Closed 69.48 for +0.24%.
Result +0.24% @ 69.48
We said
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What happened
Closed 82.80 for +0.23%.
Result +0.23% @ 82.80
We said
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What happened
Stop 290.49 hit — -0.67%.
Result -0.67% @ 292.59
We said
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What happened
Stop 305.75 hit — -1.47%.
Result -1.47% @ 311.71
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What happened
Stop 62.39 hit — -1.13%.
Result -1.13% @ 64.86
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What happened
Stop 565.68 hit — -0.67%.
Result -0.67% @ 577.35
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What happened
Stop 58.08 hit — -0.80%.
Result -0.80% @ 58.96
We said
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What happened
Stop 334.12 hit — -1.39%.
Result -1.39% @ 333.43
We said
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What happened
Stop 229.17 hit — -1.13%.
Result -1.13% @ 235.50
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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HSY closed -3.63%.
Result -3.63% @ 177.23
We said
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What happened
DUK closed -2.18%.
Result -2.18% @ 126.27
We said
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What happened
GS closed +4.50%.
Result +4.50% @ 1024.86
We said
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What happened
BMY closed +2.79%.
Result +2.79% @ 64.86
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What happened
XOM closed +0.14%.
Result +0.14% @ 156.97
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What happened
WM closed -4.34%.
Result -4.34% @ 226.33
We said
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What happened
NEE closed -0.60%.
Result -0.60% @ 87.93
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What happened
CI closed -2.97%.
Result -2.97% @ 287.66
We said
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What happened
CL closed -0.39%.
Result -0.39% @ 84.13
We said
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What happened
SO closed -1.78%.
Result -1.78% @ 94.34
We said
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What happened
VLO closed +3.45%.
Result +3.45% @ 311.71
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What happened
COIN closed +2.18%.
Result +2.18% @ 163.58
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What happened
RIVN closed +3.06%.
Result +3.06% @ 16.83
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What happened
NCLH closed -9.78%.
Result -9.78% @ 18.72
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What happened
SPOT closed -0.27%.
Result -0.27% @ 522.61
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What happened
MRNA closed +6.29%.
Result +6.29% @ 57.92
We said
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What happened
LEN closed -0.96%.
Result -0.96% @ 83.75
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What happened
F closed -2.75%.
Result -2.75% @ 14.86
We said
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What happened
LPL closed +6.81%.
Result +6.81% @ 2.98
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What happened
LYFT closed +0.71%.
Result +0.71% @ 15.55
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What happened
AAPL closed -1.41%.
Result -1.41% @ 333.43
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What happened
AMZN closed +3.90%.
Result +3.90% @ 235.50
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What happened
PENN closed -3.23%.
Result -3.23% @ 20.52
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What happened
RBLX closed -2.91%.
Result -2.91% @ 48.67
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What happened
MSTR closed +4.73%.
Result +4.72% @ 97.74
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+1.66%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+1.66%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+1.66%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+1.66%).
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+1.66%).
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What happened
Called bullish; SPX up (+1.66%).
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+1.66%).
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+1.66%).
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+1.66%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+1.66%).
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 2.01 vs est 1.9884).
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What happened
Called inline (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.88 vs est 1.8556).
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 2.04 vs est 1.6016).
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What happened
Called beat (65% beat); actual inline (EPS 7.78 vs est 7.826).
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What happened
Called inline (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 5.04 vs est 4.9086).
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What happened
Called inline (45% beat); actual beat (EPS 12.54 vs est 10.2192).
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What happened
Called inline (40% beat); actual miss (EPS -0.39 vs est -0.1151).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 2.21 vs est 2.0334).
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.84 vs est 0.7423).
We said
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What happened
Called inline (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 6.22 vs est 4.1527).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 4.24 vs est 3.3328).
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.9 vs est 1.4406).
We said
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What happened
Called inline (45% beat); actual beat (EPS -0.27 vs est -0.4174).
We said
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What happened
Called inline (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.75 vs est 0.7385).
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What happened
Not yet reported.
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What happened
Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
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What happened
Not yet reported.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.