DBTHE DAY BEFORE_
← Edition for Wednesday, July 29, 2026

The Report Card · Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Yield Curve Inversion Deepens Ahead of Tech Earnings Deluge

Rising real yields and disappointing forward guidance from bellwether tech will weigh on equity multiples through the session.

D

Accuracy

51%

Correct

32/63

Brier score

0.225

lower is better

We got 32 of 63 calls right on Wednesday, July 29, 2026.

By Category

ForecastsD

10/13

77% accuracy

TradesF

2/10

20% accuracy

PredictionsD

10/23

43% accuracy

DriversA

7/7

100% accuracy

EarningsD

3/10

30% accuracy

Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened

D

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.70%, actual -1.52%.

Result -1.52% @ 7316.15

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -1.20%, actual -2.06%.

Result -2.06% @ 27192.31

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.40%, actual -2.19%.

Result -2.19% @ 51594.14

Right
D

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.80%, actual -1.61%.

Result -1.61% @ 2906.31

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +3.00%, actual +13.45%.

Result +13.45% @ 20.66

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.30%, actual -0.44%.

Result -0.44% @ 100.93

Wrong
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.02%, actual +0.39%.

Result +0.39% @ 4.62

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -0.60%, actual +7.25%.

Result +7.25% @ 85.01

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted +0.40%, actual +1.77%.

Result +1.77% @ 4107.80

Right
B

We said

—

What happened

Predicted 0.00%, actual +0.21%.

Result +0.21% @ 57.41

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -1.80%, actual -0.56%.

Result -0.56% @ 63512.72

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -2.00%, actual -1.89%.

Result -1.89% @ 1883.74

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Predicted -1.00%, actual +2.40%.

Result +2.40% @ 2.73

Wrong

Trades — what we said vs. what happened

F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 45.86 hit — -1.40%.

Result -1.40% @ 49.44

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 398.86 hit — -1.40%.

Result -1.40% @ 390.54

Wrong
B

We said

—

What happened

Closed 585.61 for +1.55%.

Result +1.55% @ 585.61

Right
B

We said

—

What happened

Closed 87.36 for +0.63%.

Result +0.63% @ 87.36

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 104.53 hit — -1.39%.

Result -1.39% @ 104.14

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 165.98 hit — -0.77%.

Result -0.77% @ 166.24

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 34.33 hit — -1.42%.

Result -1.42% @ 34.24

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 36.05 hit — -1.12%.

Result -1.12% @ 36.12

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 367.66 hit — -0.53%.

Result -0.53% @ 371.08

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Stop 273.1 hit — -1.29%.

Result -1.29% @ 252.35

Wrong

Predictions — what we said vs. what happened

—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
F

We said

—

What happened

HUM closed -5.99%.

Result -5.99% @ 365.41

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

PG closed -1.87%.

Result -1.87% @ 146.10

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

JCI closed -0.61%.

Result -0.61% @ 139.42

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

LXP closed -0.30%.

Result -0.30% @ 60.67

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

AVTR closed +15.78%.

Result +15.78% @ 14.38

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

NEU closed +0.60%.

Result +0.60% @ 787.62

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

PSA closed -0.31%.

Result -0.31% @ 329.44

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

ETR closed -4.03%.

Result -4.03% @ 107.79

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

AWK closed +0.04%.

Result +0.04% @ 138.09

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

CBOE closed +3.50%.

Result +3.50% @ 307.81

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

MSFT closed -0.71%.

Result -0.71% @ 390.54

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

META closed -1.31%.

Result -1.31% @ 585.61

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

QCOM closed -4.42%.

Result -4.42% @ 155.68

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

SBUX closed +1.01%.

Result +1.01% @ 104.14

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

LRCX closed -6.40%.

Result -6.40% @ 252.35

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

HOOD closed -3.15%.

Result -3.15% @ 89.84

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

CMG closed +2.18%.

Result +2.18% @ 34.24

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

CRM closed +3.79%.

Result +3.79% @ 188.38

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

ALGN closed +2.55%.

Result +2.55% @ 180.08

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

CVNA closed +0.38%.

Result +0.38% @ 66.32

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

MSFT closed -0.71%.

Result -0.71% @ 390.54

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

META closed -1.31%.

Result -1.31% @ 585.61

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

QCOM closed -4.42%.

Result -4.42% @ 155.68

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

No ticker parsed from statement.

No call
C

We said

—

What happened

No ticker parsed from statement.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).

No call

Drivers — what we said vs. what happened

A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-1.52%).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-1.52%).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-1.52%).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-1.52%).

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX down (-1.52%).

No call
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-1.52%).

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX down (-1.52%).

No call
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-1.52%).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called bearish; SPX down (-1.52%).

Right
C

We said

—

What happened

Called mixed; SPX down (-1.52%).

No call

Earnings — what we said vs. what happened

F

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (55% beat); actual miss (EPS 6.18 vs est 7.3594).

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 4.74 vs est 4.3274).

Right
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (65% beat); actual beat (EPS 7.61 vs est 7.2935).

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Called inline (60% beat); actual miss (EPS 1.43 vs est 1.4514).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (50% beat); actual miss (EPS 2.21 vs est 2.2724).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called miss (45% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.85 vs est 0.6743).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called miss (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.33 vs est 0.3224).

Wrong
A

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.82 vs est 1.7172).

Right
F

We said

—

What happened

Called beat (55% beat); actual inline (EPS 2.64 vs est 2.6205).

Wrong
F

We said

—

What happened

Called miss (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.12 vs est 0.1123).

Wrong
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call
—

We said

—

What happened

Not yet reported.

No call

Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.