The Report Card · Monday, July 27, 2026
Austerity Looms: Fiscal Discipline and the Narrowing Economic Runway
Monday's session will see equities drift lower as the market begins to price in tighter fiscal policy and diminishing tailwinds from corporate AI investment.
Accuracy
38%
Correct
20/53
Brier score
0.284
lower is better
We got 20 of 53 calls right on Monday, July 27, 2026.
By Category
7/13
54% accuracy
0/9
0% accuracy
12/25
48% accuracy
0/4
0% accuracy
1/2
50% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -0.80%, actual +0.07%.
Result +0.07% @ 7413.18
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -1.20%, actual -1.46%.
Result -1.46% @ 28039.21
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -0.60%, actual +0.96%.
Result +0.96% @ 52210.08
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -1.50%, actual +0.27%.
Result +0.27% @ 2948.03
We said
—
What happened
Predicted +3.00%, actual -0.16%.
Result -0.16% @ 18.67
We said
—
What happened
Predicted +0.30%, actual +0.08%.
Result +0.08% @ 101.51
We said
—
What happened
Predicted +1.50%, actual -1.32%.
Result -1.32% @ 4.64
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -0.50%, actual -8.41%.
Result -8.41% @ 81.80
We said
—
What happened
Predicted +0.40%, actual +0.36%.
Result +0.36% @ 4082.20
We said
—
What happened
Predicted 0.00%, actual +0.18%.
Result +0.18% @ 58.76
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -1.80%, actual -0.62%.
Result -0.62% @ 64933.60
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -2.50%, actual -0.45%.
Result -0.45% @ 1944.62
We said
—
What happened
Predicted +0.70%, actual -3.52%.
Result -3.52% @ 2.77
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
—
What happened
Stop 740.97 hit — -0.36%.
Result -0.36% @ 739.09
We said
—
What happened
Stop 292.92 hit — -0.60%.
Result -0.60% @ 292.91
We said
—
What happened
Stop 83.81 hit — -0.60%.
Result -0.60% @ 83.75
We said
—
What happened
Stop 208.17 hit — -0.68%.
Result -0.68% @ 196.51
We said
—
What happened
Stop 46.12 hit — -0.39%.
Result -0.39% @ 45.68
We said
—
What happened
Stop 335.11 hit — -0.53%.
Result -0.53% @ 336.91
We said
—
What happened
Limit at 4057.1 not filled (day range 4067.10–4119.30).
Result 0.00% @ 4082.20
We said
—
What happened
Stop 87.37 hit — -0.41%.
Result -0.41% @ 89.54
We said
—
What happened
Stop 133.56 hit — -0.80%.
Result -0.80% @ 134.54
We said
—
What happened
Stop 72.47 hit — -0.83%.
Result -0.83% @ 72.53
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
PEP closed +3.59%.
Result +3.59% @ 139.79
We said
—
What happened
VZ closed +7.99%.
Result +7.99% @ 47.32
We said
—
What happened
DUK closed -0.33%.
Result -0.33% @ 128.83
We said
—
What happened
XLU closed -1.10%.
Result -1.10% @ 45.68
We said
—
What happened
GD closed +1.93%.
Result +1.93% @ 389.14
We said
—
What happened
KHC closed +3.39%.
Result +3.39% @ 26.22
We said
—
What happened
WM closed +0.27%.
Result +0.27% @ 237.90
We said
—
What happened
BIIB closed -0.24%.
Result -0.24% @ 200.14
We said
—
What happened
JNJ closed +2.58%.
Result +2.58% @ 265.95
We said
—
What happened
GLD closed +0.84%.
Result +0.84% @ 374.63
We said
—
What happened
NVDA closed -5.87%.
Result -5.87% @ 196.51
We said
—
What happened
TSLA closed -3.28%.
Result -3.27% @ 309.22
We said
—
What happened
SMCI closed -4.46%.
Result -4.46% @ 29.81
We said
—
What happened
RIVN closed +0.12%.
Result +0.12% @ 16.48
We said
—
What happened
CVNA closed +6.40%.
Result +6.40% @ 64.04
We said
—
What happened
SNAP closed +2.49%.
Result +2.49% @ 4.52
We said
—
What happened
AMC closed +10.09%.
Result +10.09% @ 2.51
We said
—
What happened
PLTR closed +6.61%.
Result +6.61% @ 131.53
We said
—
What happened
ZM closed +8.45%.
Result +8.45% @ 91.22
We said
—
What happened
SMH closed -5.45%.
Result -5.45% @ 548.55
We said
—
What happened
RUT closed +0.27%.
Result +0.27% @ 2948.03
We said
—
What happened
QQQ closed -1.42%.
Result -1.42% @ 682.12
We said
—
What happened
TLT closed +0.70%.
Result +0.70% @ 83.75
We said
—
What happened
ARKK closed -1.76%.
Result -1.76% @ 72.53
We said
—
What happened
WTI closed -14.03%.
Result -14.03% @ 3.31
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
—
What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
—
What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.07%).
We said
—
What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.07%).
We said
—
What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.07%).
We said
—
What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.07%).
We said
—
What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.07%).
We said
—
What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.07%).
We said
—
What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.07%).
We said
—
What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.07%).
We said
—
What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.07%).
We said
—
What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.07%).
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual miss (EPS 1.59 vs est 2.4859).
We said
—
What happened
Called miss (45% beat); actual beat (EPS 4.73 vs est 4.08).
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
—
What happened
Not yet reported.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.