The Report Card · Friday, July 24, 2026
Energy earnings and defensive rotations drive a quiet close to the week
Robust oil majors' results and increasing caution from bond markets suggest an underlying bid for value and stability, even as broader indices drift.
Accuracy
61%
Correct
38/62
Brier score
0.214
lower is better
We got 38 of 62 calls right on Friday, July 24, 2026.
By Category
9/13
69% accuracy
3/7
43% accuracy
13/25
52% accuracy
0/0
n/a
13/17
76% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.40%, actual +0.22%.
Result +0.23% @ 4055.70
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.30%, actual +0.05%.
Result +0.05% @ 7411.98
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.50%, actual -1.15%.
Result -1.15% @ 28128.34
We said
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What happened
Predicted 0.00%, actual +0.46%.
Result +0.46% @ 51947.25
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.70%, actual -0.35%.
Result -0.35% @ 2930.00
We said
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What happened
Predicted +1.50%, actual -0.64%.
Result -0.64% @ 18.58
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.10%, actual +0.05%.
Result +0.05% @ 101.48
We said
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What happened
Predicted 0.00%, actual -0.51%.
Result -0.51% @ 4.68
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.80%, actual -2.03%.
Result -2.03% @ 90.32
We said
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What happened
Predicted 0.00%, actual +1.12%.
Result +1.12% @ 58.45
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.60%, actual -1.72%.
Result -1.72% @ 63925.97
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.80%, actual -1.54%.
Result -1.54% @ 1848.24
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.20%, actual -0.51%.
Result -0.51% @ 2.90
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Closed 156.94 for +0.11%.
Result +0.11% @ 156.94
We said
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What happened
Stop 338.63 hit — -0.91%.
Result -0.91% @ 326.17
We said
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What happened
Limit at 47.31 not filled (day range 49.76–52.59).
Result 0.00% @ 52.42
We said
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What happened
Stop 88.89 hit — -1.00%.
Result -1.00% @ 89.78
We said
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What happened
Limit at 323.39 not filled (day range 306.51–322.96).
Result 0.00% @ 313.03
We said
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What happened
Target 176.67 hit — +1.00%.
Result +1.00% @ 175.88
We said
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What happened
Target 374.18 hit — +0.70%.
Result +0.70% @ 371.90
We said
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What happened
Stop 43.77 hit — -0.32%.
Result -0.32% @ 46.38
We said
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What happened
Stop 125.92 hit — -0.46%.
Result -0.46% @ 123.31
We said
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What happened
Limit at 162.28 not filled (day range 153.80–161.00).
Result 0.00% @ 158.29
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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XOM closed +0.03%.
Result +0.03% @ 156.94
We said
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What happened
AXP closed -4.30%.
Result -4.30% @ 326.17
We said
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What happened
SLB closed +11.01%.
Result +11.01% @ 52.42
We said
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What happened
NEE closed -0.01%.
Result -0.01% @ 89.78
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What happened
CVX closed +0.19%.
Result +0.19% @ 194.79
We said
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What happened
OXY closed -0.52%.
Result -0.52% @ 57.30
We said
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What happened
THC closed +17.17%.
Result +17.17% @ 233.20
We said
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What happened
PPL closed -0.06%.
Result -0.06% @ 36.22
We said
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What happened
KDP closed +0.03%.
Result +0.03% @ 29.68
We said
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What happened
KO closed +1.33%.
Result +1.33% @ 82.25
We said
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What happened
TSLA closed -2.08%.
Result -2.08% @ 313.03
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What happened
NVDA closed -0.92%.
Result -0.92% @ 206.84
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What happened
AAPL closed +3.53%.
Result +3.53% @ 333.02
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What happened
GOOGL closed +0.65%.
Result +0.65% @ 319.74
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What happened
AMZN closed -0.66%.
Result -0.66% @ 232.11
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What happened
SHOP closed +1.56%.
Result +1.56% @ 113.75
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What happened
ROKU closed +0.21%.
Result +0.21% @ 141.97
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What happened
NFLX closed +1.74%.
Result +1.74% @ 70.09
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What happened
COIN closed -1.78%.
Result -1.78% @ 158.29
We said
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What happened
RIVN closed -3.77%.
Result -3.77% @ 15.84
We said
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What happened
XOM closed +0.03%.
Result +0.03% @ 156.94
We said
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What happened
AXP closed -4.30%.
Result -4.30% @ 326.17
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What happened
SLB closed +11.01%.
Result +11.01% @ 52.42
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What happened
NEE closed -0.01%.
Result -0.01% @ 89.78
We said
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What happened
CHTR closed -2.52%.
Result -2.52% @ 123.31
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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What happened
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX flat (+0.05%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX flat (+0.05%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX flat (+0.05%).
We said
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What happened
Called bullish; SPX flat (+0.05%).
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What happened
Called bullish; SPX flat (+0.05%).
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX flat (+0.05%).
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX flat (+0.05%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX flat (+0.05%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX flat (+0.05%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX flat (+0.05%).
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
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What happened
Called beat (70% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.16 vs est 1.015).
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What happened
Called beat (65% beat); actual beat (EPS 4.53 vs est 4.4523).
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What happened
Called beat (65% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.55 vs est 0.5146).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.15 vs est 1.105).
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual inline (EPS 1.3 vs est 1.3036).
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What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 10.66 vs est 10.3716).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 4.82 vs est 4.2234).
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.81 vs est 1.5081).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.39 vs est 0.1268).
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.6 vs est 0.5873).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.58 vs est 0.5085).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual miss (EPS -1.07 vs est -0.4944).
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What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.87 vs est 0.6444).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.2 vs est 1.0538).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual miss (EPS 0.07 vs est 0.1172).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (45% beat); actual miss (EPS 0.05 vs est 0.0677).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.74 vs est 0.7121).
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.