The Report Card · Thursday, July 23, 2026
The narrow market braces for another earnings reckoning
Robust earnings from selective mega-cap tech will not be enough to offset broader weakness, leading to a modest decline in the S&P 500 for the session.
Accuracy
55%
Correct
36/65
Brier score
0.246
lower is better
We got 36 of 65 calls right on Thursday, July 23, 2026.
By Category
8/13
62% accuracy
0/7
0% accuracy
16/25
64% accuracy
4/5
80% accuracy
8/15
53% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Predicted 0.00%, actual -0.48%.
Result -0.48% @ 2.91
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.40%, actual -1.21%.
Result -1.21% @ 7408.30
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.20%, actual -1.87%.
Result -1.87% @ 28454.81
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.60%, actual -0.97%.
Result -0.97% @ 51711.65
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.80%, actual -0.67%.
Result -0.67% @ 2940.16
We said
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What happened
Predicted +3.00%, actual +12.38%.
Result +12.38% @ 18.70
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.10%, actual +0.30%.
Result +0.30% @ 101.44
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.01%, actual +0.99%.
Result +0.99% @ 4.70
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.70%, actual +5.95%.
Result +5.95% @ 92.00
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.30%, actual -2.31%.
Result -2.31% @ 4051.30
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.40%, actual -3.55%.
Result -3.55% @ 57.89
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.20%, actual -1.55%.
Result -1.55% @ 65073.09
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.50%, actual -2.52%.
Result -2.52% @ 1884.81
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Stop 31.56 hit — -0.99%.
Result -0.99% @ 30.90
We said
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What happened
Limit at 14.79 not filled (day range 13.31–14.17).
Result 0.00% @ 13.55
We said
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What happened
Limit at 515.94 not filled (day range 545.38–576.00).
Result 0.00% @ 568.59
We said
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What happened
Stop 235.58 hit — -1.11%.
Result -1.11% @ 246.27
We said
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What happened
Stop 45.68 hit — -0.54%.
Result -0.54% @ 46.19
We said
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What happened
Limit at 589 not filled (day range 574.00–586.89).
Result 0.00% @ 580.17
We said
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What happened
Stop 224.41 hit — -0.80%.
Result -0.80% @ 225.20
We said
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What happened
Stop 64.95 hit — -1.25%.
Result -1.25% @ 63.50
We said
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What happened
Stop 377.76 hit — -0.36%.
Result -0.36% @ 371.52
We said
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What happened
Stop 295.49 hit — -1.00%.
Result -1.00% @ 304.33
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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What happened
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What happened
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What happened
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What happened
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What happened
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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What happened
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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What happened
LMT closed +10.54%.
Result +10.54% @ 568.59
We said
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What happened
RTX closed +7.33%.
Result +7.33% @ 209.16
We said
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What happened
XLU closed +0.57%.
Result +0.57% @ 46.19
We said
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What happened
GOLD closed -1.69%.
Result -1.69% @ 39.53
We said
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What happened
T closed -0.35%.
Result -0.35% @ 22.96
We said
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What happened
DUK closed +1.02%.
Result +1.02% @ 129.26
We said
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What happened
TMO closed +8.71%.
Result +8.71% @ 572.32
We said
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What happened
NEM closed -1.08%.
Result -1.08% @ 94.72
We said
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What happened
STZ closed -2.13%.
Result -2.13% @ 129.27
We said
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What happened
PEG closed +0.24%.
Result +0.24% @ 79.77
We said
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What happened
DOW closed -1.12%.
Result -1.12% @ 30.90
We said
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What happened
INTC closed -2.33%.
Result -2.33% @ 100.23
We said
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What happened
AAL closed -8.35%.
Result -8.35% @ 13.55
We said
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What happened
HON closed +5.70%.
Result +5.70% @ 246.27
We said
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What happened
FCX closed -2.31%.
Result -2.31% @ 63.50
We said
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What happened
UNP closed +4.02%.
Result +4.02% @ 304.33
We said
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What happened
CMCSA closed -6.80%.
Result -6.80% @ 21.92
We said
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What happened
SNA closed -2.65%.
Result -2.65% @ 395.41
We said
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What happened
PHM closed -1.64%.
Result -1.64% @ 124.67
We said
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What happened
DECK closed -6.09%.
Result -6.09% @ 96.23
We said
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What happened
INTC closed -2.33%.
Result -2.33% @ 100.23
We said
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What happened
AAL closed -8.35%.
Result -8.35% @ 13.55
We said
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What happened
DOW closed -1.12%.
Result -1.12% @ 30.90
We said
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What happened
RTX closed +7.33%.
Result +7.33% @ 209.16
We said
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What happened
FCX closed -2.31%.
Result -2.31% @ 63.50
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-1.21%).
We said
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What happened
Called bullish; SPX down (-1.21%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX down (-1.21%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-1.21%).
We said
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What happened
Called neutral; SPX down (-1.21%).
We said
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What happened
Called neutral; SPX down (-1.21%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-1.21%).
We said
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What happened
Called neutral; SPX down (-1.21%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-1.21%).
We said
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What happened
Called neutral; SPX down (-1.21%).
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Called inline (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.42 vs est 0.2168).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.15 vs est 0.0346).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (30% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.44 vs est 1.2856).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (45% beat); actual miss (EPS 1.95 vs est 4.8611).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 7.94 vs est 7.2037).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.89 vs est 1.6781).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.04 vs est 0.9966).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 6.03 vs est 5.7689).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 3.13 vs est 2.6478).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.74 vs est 0.596).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 3.41 vs est 3.2763).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.75 vs est 0.3165).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.07 vs est 0.9998).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (45% beat); actual miss (EPS 5.38 vs est 5.4579).
We said
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What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.94 vs est 0.8876).
We said
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What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
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What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
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What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
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What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
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What happened
Not yet reported.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.