The Report Card · Wednesday, July 22, 2026
Earnings narratives diverge as rates hold firm
Today's session will likely see a cautious drift lower in equities, particularly in growth sectors, as strong earnings from mature tech are offset by lingering rate concerns.
Accuracy
59%
Correct
36/61
Brier score
0.228
lower is better
We got 36 of 61 calls right on Wednesday, July 22, 2026.
By Category
8/13
62% accuracy
3/9
33% accuracy
16/25
64% accuracy
3/3
100% accuracy
6/11
55% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -0.40%, actual -0.14%.
Result -0.14% @ 7498.96
We said
—
What happened
Predicted -0.70%, actual -0.54%.
Result -0.54% @ 28998.10
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.20%, actual -0.01%.
Result -0.01% @ 52218.58
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.90%, actual -0.92%.
Result -0.92% @ 2959.94
We said
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What happened
Predicted +1.50%, actual -2.40%.
Result -2.40% @ 16.64
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.20%, actual -0.07%.
Result -0.07% @ 101.11
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.50%, actual +0.63%.
Result +0.63% @ 4.66
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.30%, actual +1.81%.
Result +1.81% @ 86.45
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.50%, actual +1.73%.
Result +1.73% @ 4141.50
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.80%, actual +2.33%.
Result +2.33% @ 60.20
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.20%, actual -0.95%.
Result -0.95% @ 65872.66
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.50%, actual -0.14%.
Result -0.14% @ 1925.60
We said
—
What happened
Predicted +0.60%, actual +2.79%.
Result +2.79% @ 2.94
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Stop 17490.68 hit — -0.40%.
Result -0.40% @ 28998.10
We said
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What happened
Closed 83.44 for +0.26%.
Result +0.26% @ 83.44
We said
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What happened
Closed 374.01 for +0.71%.
Result +0.71% @ 374.01
We said
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What happened
Stop 127.03 hit — -0.75%.
Result -0.75% @ 126.75
We said
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What happened
Limit at 45.01 not filled (day range 45.21–45.99).
Result 0.00% @ 45.93
We said
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What happened
Stop 129.49 hit — -0.50%.
Result -0.50% @ 131.68
We said
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What happened
Stop 23.03 hit — -0.52%.
Result -0.52% @ 23.04
We said
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What happened
Closed 45.01 for +0.42%.
Result +0.42% @ 45.01
We said
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What happened
Stop 380.4 hit — -0.41%.
Result -0.41% @ 379.12
We said
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What happened
Closed 342.09 for -1.81%.
Result -1.81% @ 342.09
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
ADM closed +1.30%.
Result +1.30% @ 87.32
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
WMT closed -0.96%.
Result -0.96% @ 109.33
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
AT closed 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
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What happened
CL closed +1.81%.
Result +1.81% @ 86.45
We said
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What happened
DUK closed +1.62%.
Result +1.62% @ 127.95
We said
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What happened
LMT closed +1.43%.
Result +1.43% @ 514.36
We said
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What happened
GE closed +0.14%.
Result +0.14% @ 341.19
We said
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What happened
KO closed +0.28%.
Result +0.28% @ 82.20
We said
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What happened
JNJ closed +2.00%.
Result +2.00% @ 255.63
We said
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What happened
XOM closed +1.81%.
Result +1.81% @ 154.45
We said
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What happened
TSLA closed -1.30%.
Result -1.30% @ 374.01
We said
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What happened
NVDA closed +2.30%.
Result +2.30% @ 212.06
We said
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What happened
COIN closed -5.53%.
Result -5.53% @ 166.12
We said
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What happened
RIVN closed -3.27%.
Result -3.27% @ 17.18
We said
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What happened
CRM closed -4.15%.
Result -4.15% @ 163.00
We said
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What happened
PHM closed +2.00%.
Result +2.00% @ 126.75
We said
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What happened
RBLX closed -5.45%.
Result -5.45% @ 49.64
We said
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What happened
AXP closed -0.58%.
Result -0.58% @ 348.74
We said
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What happened
PLUG closed -1.76%.
Result -1.76% @ 2.23
We said
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What happened
ZG closed -1.42%.
Result -1.42% @ 31.35
We said
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What happened
GOOGL closed -1.46%.
Result -1.46% @ 342.09
We said
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What happened
TSLA closed -1.30%.
Result -1.30% @ 374.01
We said
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What happened
TXN closed +0.99%.
Result +0.99% @ 294.19
We said
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What happened
IBM closed -2.25%.
Result -2.25% @ 205.77
We said
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What happened
AT closed 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Called neutral; SPX down (-0.14%).
We said
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What happened
Called neutral; SPX down (-0.14%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.14%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX down (-0.14%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX down (-0.14%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX down (-0.14%).
We said
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What happened
Called neutral; SPX down (-0.14%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.14%).
We said
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What happened
Called neutral; SPX down (-0.14%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.14%).
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Called beat (65% beat); actual beat (EPS 9.11 vs est 2.9753).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual miss (EPS 0.33 vs est 0.5103).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual miss (EPS 2.93 vs est 3.0119).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 2.14 vs est 1.9532).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.65 vs est 0.5996).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 2.99 vs est 2.9375).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.37 vs est 0.329).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.9 vs est 0.8625).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual miss (EPS 0.97 vs est 1.0207).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual inline (EPS 1.02 vs est 1.0154).
We said
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What happened
Called beat (50% beat); actual miss (EPS -0.76 vs est 0.0842).
We said
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What happened
Not yet reported.
We said
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What happened
Not yet reported.
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What happened
Not yet reported.
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What happened
Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
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What happened
Not yet reported.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.