The Report Card · Tuesday, July 21, 2026
Earnings sentiment threatens Fed's soft landing hopes
The week's corporate commentary, particularly from industrials and consumer discretionary, will test the market's resilience to higher-for-longer rates, pushing equity indices moderately lower.
Accuracy
27%
Correct
16/60
Brier score
0.315
lower is better
We got 16 of 60 calls right on Tuesday, July 21, 2026.
By Category
4/13
31% accuracy
2/9
22% accuracy
7/25
28% accuracy
1/6
17% accuracy
2/7
29% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.75%, actual +0.89%.
Result +0.89% @ 7509.20
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.90%, actual +1.93%.
Result +1.93% @ 29155.18
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.60%, actual +0.74%.
Result +0.74% @ 52224.64
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.10%, actual +1.53%.
Result +1.53% @ 2987.40
We said
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What happened
Predicted +3.50%, actual -8.69%.
Result -8.69% @ 17.03
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.20%, actual +0.19%.
Result +0.19% @ 101.18
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.02%, actual +0.65%.
Result +0.65% @ 4.63
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.80%, actual +1.56%.
Result +1.56% @ 84.53
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.40%, actual +1.94%.
Result +1.94% @ 4088.10
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.10%, actual +3.91%.
Result +3.91% @ 59.02
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.20%, actual +1.70%.
Result +1.70% @ 66341.27
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.50%, actual +0.89%.
Result +0.89% @ 1920.62
We said
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What happened
Predicted +1.10%, actual +1.15%.
Result +1.15% @ 2.89
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Stop 84.24 hit — -0.72%.
Result -0.72% @ 84.06
We said
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What happened
Stop 76.8 hit — -1.59%.
Result -1.59% @ 79.52
We said
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What happened
Closed 143.52 for +0.88%.
Result +0.88% @ 143.52
We said
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What happened
Stop 101.32 hit — -1.55%.
Result -1.55% @ 99.96
We said
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What happened
Stop 179.53 hit — -0.79%.
Result -0.79% @ 178.66
We said
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What happened
Stop 505.41 hit — -0.88%.
Result -0.88% @ 507.09
We said
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What happened
Limit at 368.1 not filled (day range 371.07–375.01).
Result 0.00% @ 374.80
We said
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What happened
Closed 88.46 for +0.54%.
Result +0.54% @ 88.46
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What happened
Stop 1071.67 hit — -0.71%.
Result -0.71% @ 1078.81
We said
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What happened
Stop 375.68 hit — -1.54%.
Result -1.54% @ 378.93
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
F closed +2.00%.
Result +2.00% @ 14.27
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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SCHW closed -2.52%.
Result -2.52% @ 99.96
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What happened
LMT closed -0.48%.
Result -0.48% @ 507.09
We said
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What happened
NOC closed -2.23%.
Result -2.23% @ 512.29
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What happened
DUK closed +0.05%.
Result +0.05% @ 125.91
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What happened
PG closed -0.69%.
Result -0.69% @ 148.10
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What happened
GLD closed +1.96%.
Result +1.96% @ 374.80
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What happened
RTX closed -0.40%.
Result -0.40% @ 193.67
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What happened
SO closed -0.65%.
Result -0.65% @ 93.85
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What happened
XOM closed +2.26%.
Result +2.26% @ 151.71
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What happened
KO closed -0.18%.
Result -0.18% @ 81.97
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What happened
GM closed +4.91%.
Result +4.91% @ 79.52
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What happened
D closed -0.72%.
Result -0.72% @ 69.85
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What happened
TSLA closed +2.53%.
Result +2.53% @ 378.93
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What happened
AMZN closed -0.98%.
Result -0.98% @ 247.55
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What happened
NVDA closed +1.97%.
Result +1.97% @ 207.29
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What happened
PHM closed +0.88%.
Result +0.88% @ 124.26
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What happened
CRM closed -2.15%.
Result -2.15% @ 170.06
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What happened
RCL closed +0.61%.
Result +0.61% @ 287.90
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What happened
DAL closed +0.11%.
Result +0.11% @ 84.63
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What happened
GM closed +4.91%.
Result +4.91% @ 79.52
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What happened
SCHW closed -2.52%.
Result -2.52% @ 99.96
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What happened
D closed -0.72%.
Result -0.72% @ 69.85
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What happened
TXN closed +2.55%.
Result +2.54% @ 291.30
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What happened
TSLA closed +2.53%.
Result +2.53% @ 378.93
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.89%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.89%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.89%).
We said
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What happened
Called bullish; SPX up (+0.89%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.89%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.89%).
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+0.89%).
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.89%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.89%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+0.89%).
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
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What happened
Called inline (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 3.57 vs est 3.2931).
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What happened
Called beat (70% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.62 vs est 1.5808).
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What happened
Called inline (35% beat); actual beat (EPS 3.2 vs est 3.0659).
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What happened
Called inline (45% beat); actual beat (EPS 2.4 vs est 2.2677).
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What happened
Called beat (55% beat); actual miss (EPS 1.21 vs est 1.2507).
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What happened
Called beat (60% beat); actual beat (EPS 4.1 vs est 3.7893).
We said
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What happened
Called inline (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.55 vs est 0.5421).
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What happened
Not yet reported.
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Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.