The Report Card · Monday, July 20, 2026
Tomorrow's Opening Bell Leans Higher
Softer volatility, firmer futures, and a lighter macro calendar tilt the balance of probabilities toward a green open.
Accuracy
58%
Correct
14/24
Brier score
0.234
lower is better
We got 14 of 24 calls right on Monday, July 20, 2026.
By Category
9/13
69% accuracy
0/3
0% accuracy
1/1
100% accuracy
4/7
57% accuracy
0/0
n/a
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.42%, actual -0.19%.
Result -0.19% @ 7443.28
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.71%, actual +0.04%.
Result +0.04% @ 28604.23
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.18%, actual -0.59%.
Result -0.59% @ 51839.26
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.65%, actual -0.67%.
Result -0.67% @ 2942.43
We said
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What happened
Predicted -2.10%, actual -0.64%.
Result -0.64% @ 18.65
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.05%, actual +0.24%.
Result +0.24% @ 100.99
We said
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What happened
Predicted +3.00%, actual +1.26%.
Result +1.25% @ 4.60
We said
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What happened
Predicted +1.40%, actual +0.90%.
Result +0.90% @ 83.23
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.40%, actual -0.06%.
Result -0.06% @ 4010.30
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.10%, actual +1.36%.
Result +1.36% @ 56.80
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.90%, actual +1.70%.
Result +1.70% @ 66341.27
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.60%, actual +0.91%.
Result +0.91% @ 1921.08
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.30%, actual -1.75%.
Result -1.75% @ 2.86
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Limit at 138.2 not filled (day range 202.28–207.74).
Result 0.00% @ 203.28
We said
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What happened
Limit at 612 not filled (day range 636.01–653.30).
Result 0.00% @ 645.85
We said
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What happened
Stop 89.8 hit — -2.50%.
Result -2.50% @ 57.94
We said
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What happened
Limit at 91.4 not filled (day range 83.82–84.34).
Result 0.00% @ 83.89
We said
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What happened
Limit at 244 not filled (day range 366.80–368.79).
Result 0.00% @ 367.60
We said
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What happened
Limit at 258 not filled (day range 557.24–572.77).
Result 0.00% @ 558.83
We said
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What happened
Stop 234.2 hit — -0.95%.
Result -0.95% @ 292.31
We said
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What happened
Limit at 218 not filled (day range 248.00–252.89).
Result 0.00% @ 249.99
We said
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What happened
Stop 305 hit — -2.24%.
Result -2.24% @ 160.43
We said
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What happened
Limit at 81.2 not filled (day range 44.81–45.66).
Result 0.00% @ 44.94
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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What happened
AMD closed +1.58%.
Result +1.57% @ 503.57
We said
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What happened
No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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No ticker parsed from statement.
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What happened
Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX down (-0.19%).
We said
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What happened
Called bullish; SPX down (-0.19%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.19%).
We said
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What happened
Called bullish; SPX down (-0.19%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.19%).
We said
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What happened
Called bullish; SPX down (-0.19%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX down (-0.19%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.19%).
We said
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX down (-0.19%).
We said
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX down (-0.19%).
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Not yet reported.
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What happened
Not yet reported.
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What happened
Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
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What happened
Not yet reported.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.