Expected Moves at Tomorrow's Open
How much each asset is expected to rise or fall from today's close to tomorrow's open| Asset | Expected | ↑ Prob | ↓ Prob | Range | Conf. | Biggest Risk | Biggest Tailwind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S&P 500 | -0.75% | 35% | 65% | 0.00 / 0.00 | 70 | Strong performance from major DHI or DHR earnings | Wider credit spread concerns on regional bank reports |
Nasdaq 100 | -0.85% | 30% | 70% | 0.00 / 0.00 | 68 | Unexpectedly dovish comments from Fed speakers | Flight to safety out of cyclical sectors |
Dow | -0.60% | 38% | 62% | 0.00 / 0.00 | 65 | Industrial earnings exceeding expectations | Pressure from financial sector re-ratings |
Russell 2000 | -1.20% | 25% | 75% | 0.00 / 0.00 | 78 | Surprising strength in small-cap credit markets | Increased scrutiny on regional bank balance sheets |
VIX | +3.00% | 70% | 30% | 0.00 / 0.00 | 72 | Calm in early earnings reports | Growing jitters around bank stability |
Dollar | +0.20% | 60% | 40% | 0.00 / 0.00 | 60 | Softer comments from FOMC members | Safe-haven demand amid equity weakness |
10Y Treasury Yield | -0.03% | 40% | 60% | 0.00 / 0.00 | 65 | Steeper yield curve from inflation fears | Flight-to-quality bid driving bond prices higher |
Oil | -0.50% | 45% | 55% | 0.00 / 0.00 | 55 | New geopolitical developments | Concerns over global demand from slowing growth |
Gold | +0.40% | 65% | 35% | 0.00 / 0.00 | 68 | Stronger dollar counteracting safe-haven flow | Increased systemic risk perception |
Silver | +0.50% | 60% | 40% | 0.00 / 0.00 | 62 | Industrial demand outlook weakening further | Leveraged play on gold's safe-haven appeal |
Bitcoin | -1.50% | 30% | 70% | 0.00 / 0.00 | 60 | Renewed risk-on sentiment in tech | Contagion concerns from broader financial sector weakness |
Ethereum | -1.80% | 28% | 72% | 0.00 / 0.00 | 58 | Major protocol upgrade news | Amplified crypto-specific de-risking |
Natural Gas | +0.70% | 55% | 45% | 0.00 / 0.00 | 50 | Warmer weather forecasts | Modest short covering after recent declines |