Expected Moves at Tomorrow's Open
How much each asset is expected to rise or fall from today's close to tomorrow's open
| Asset | Expected | ↑ Prob | ↓ Prob | Range | Conf. | Biggest Risk | Biggest Tailwind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S&P 500 | +0.28% | 54% | 46% | 7574.31 / 7715.74 | 63 | Early wireless subscriber weakness from Verizon (VZ) | Pre-earnings institutional accumulation across mega-cap enterprise tech |
Nasdaq 100 | +0.42% | 54% | 46% | 28802.90 / 29355.40 | 62 | Multiple compression on high-multiple software valuations | Robust cloud infrastructure capex indications lifting chip suppliers |
Dow Jones Industrial Average | +0.16% | 52% | 48% | 51775.72 / 52821.69 | 60 | Slowing industrial equipment orders hitting heavy machinery | Financial services stabilization and enterprise hardware gains |
Russell 2000 | +0.12% | 51% | 49% | 2747.96 / 2810.50 | 55 | Regional bank net interest margin contraction under elevated base rates | Sustained rotation into high-beta small caps after last week's 2.0% advance |
Volatility Index | -1.45% | 48% | 52% | 18.95 / 19.39 | 54 | Downside shock in SPX crossing below 50-day moving average | Implied volatility decay during quiet Monday session flow |
US Dollar Index | +0.02% | 50% | 50% | 100.62 / 103.06 | 52 | Dovish repricing of future Federal Reserve policy paths | Safe-haven flows amid steady US economic outperformance |
10-Year Treasury Yield | -0.25% | 49% | 51% | 4.92 / 5.03 | 53 | Treasury coupon auction supply concessions pushing yields higher | Institutional duration buying following recent yield consolidation |
Crude Oil | -0.65% | 49% | 51% | 101.37 / 103.67 | 55 | Sudden supply disruption across Middle East maritime transit corridors | Weakening physical refining margins damping prompt product demand |
Gold | +0.18% | 51% | 49% | 3969.51 / 4065.93 | 52 | Physical exchange outflows if real yields push higher | Central bank sovereign reserve accumulation providing price support |
Silver | +0.10% | 50% | 50% | 53.35 / 54.70 | 50 | Global industrial manufacturing output deceleration | Technical dip buying after a 5.26% five-day correction |
Bitcoin | +0.45% | 52% | 48% | 80705.25 / 82583.07 | 54 | Unexpected institutional ETF net outflows | Persistent spot ETF inflows dampening weekend retail volatility |
Ethereum | +0.55% | 51% | 49% | 2380.47 / 2438.29 | 52 | Layer 1 transaction fee revenue stagnating | DeFi collateral demand tracking broader digital asset stabilization |
Natural Gas | -0.90% | 48% | 52% | 2.99 / 3.06 | 51 | Early cold front forecasts boosting prompt heating demand | Elevated domestic production inventory and mild autumn temperatures |