Expected Moves at Tomorrow's Open
How much each asset is expected to rise or fall from today's close to tomorrow's open
| Asset | Expected | ↑ Prob | ↓ Prob | Range | Conf. | Biggest Risk | Biggest Tailwind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S&P 500 | +0.40% | 56% | 44% | 7618.99 / 7714.82 | 75 | Softer Oracle guidance | Robust enterprise tech spending |
Nasdaq 100 | +0.60% | 57% | 43% | 29427.89 / 29768.27 | 77 | Disappointing Oracle cloud growth | Strong Oracle AI infrastructure comments |
Dow | +0.30% | 55% | 45% | 52143.77 / 52931.84 | 70 | Negative reaction to Oracle results | Broad market improvement from tech strength |
Russell 2000 | +0.20% | 53% | 47% | 2901.46 / 2952.69 | 65 | Yields moving higher on tech strength | General uplift in risk sentiment |
VIX | -2.50% | 41% | 59% | 15.93 / 16.17 | 70 | Unexpected macro headline | Orderly market close higher |
Dollar | -0.10% | 47% | 53% | 97.74 / 99.71 | 60 | Stronger than expected PPI data | Improved risk appetite |
10Y Treasury Yield | +0.50% | 53% | 47% | 4.82 / 4.90 | 65 | Weak PPI data | Stronger equity market perception |
Oil | +0.50% | 51% | 49% | 96.20 / 98.39 | 55 | Unexpected inventory build | Ongoing tight supply narrative |
Gold | -0.30% | 49% | 51% | 4381.78 / 4474.77 | 58 | Weaker dollar | Stronger yields |
Silver | -0.40% | 48% | 52% | 66.85 / 68.31 | 57 | Weaker dollar | Stronger yields |
Bitcoin | +0.30% | 51% | 49% | 77645.39 / 79412.28 | 55 | Risk-off sentiment after Oracle | General risk-on market tone |
Ethereum | +0.40% | 51% | 49% | 2452.32 / 2508.12 | 55 | Risk-off sentiment after Oracle | General risk-on market tone |
Natural Gas | -0.80% | 47% | 53% | 2.76 / 2.81 | 60 | Unexpected weather event | Continued mild weather outlook |