Tech Extends Rebound and S&P 500 Adds 0.4% on Monday

We think the S&P 500 closes green on Monday, November 9, 2026, advancing roughly 0.38% as buyers build upon Friday's semiconductor bounce and power utilities validate AI datacenter infrastructure demand. The S&P 500 sits 0.71% above its 200-day moving average after dropping 2.68% over the past five sessions. Technology hardware staged a sharp turnaround on Friday, with benchmark semiconductor funds jumping 12.48% and enterprise software adding 1.38%. That gives Monday's opening bell clean positive momentum that outweighs a persistent slump in raw energy commodities.

The clearest engine for Monday's session comes from the electric grid. Constellation Energy (CEG) reports third-quarter numbers before the opening bell, and we expect the company to beat consensus earnings estimates of 2.65 dollars per share while detailing expanded long-term nuclear power supply agreements. Technology giants like Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) need gigawatts of zero-carbon baseload electricity to feed new server clusters, and Constellation Energy holds the largest merchant nuclear fleet in the country. NRG Energy (NRG) also reports Monday morning, supported by robust peak summer commercial power tariffs across Texas. Utilities carry a 65% probability of closing higher on Monday, and positive reports from Constellation Energy and NRG will pull independent power producers higher by roughly 1.5% to 2.0%.

Enterprise technology spending provides the second pillar of support. Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) experienced heavy institutional accumulation into Friday's close, and that appetite will carry forward as investors position ahead of late-week equipment earnings from Applied Materials (AMAT). Enterprise buyers are not cutting software infrastructure projects. IBM (IBM) continues to see commercial consulting bookings expand around customized Red Hat enterprise software installations. We assign a 66% probability that IBM outperforms the broader index on Monday, gaining about 0.9% as its high recurring revenue protects margins. With the 10-year Treasury yield easing 1.42% over the last five sessions, software and hardware valuations have room to absorb incoming fourth-quarter corporate budgets.

The primary drag on Monday belongs squarely to fossil fuels. Crude oil dropped 13.04% over the prior five sessions, leaving benchmark contracts struggling beneath 72 dollars a barrel. That collapse directly hits Occidental Petroleum (OXY), which reports earnings after Monday's closing bell. Upstream producers face declining realized barrel prices and diminishing drilling returns in the Permian basin, and we assign energy a 42% probability of closing green. CNH Industrial (CNH) also reports Monday morning and will likely illustrate the negative side of falling commodity prices, as declining farmer cash receipts reduce wholesale combine and tractor demand by an estimated 10% to 15% year over year.

Our constructive outlook would fail if Constellation Energy (CEG) flags unexpected regulatory roadblocks on behind-the-meter datacenter power interconnections, or if the 10-year Treasury yield spikes abruptly back above 4.48%. A break below Friday's intraday low of 5,740 on the S&P 500 would confirm that energy sector liquidation is spreading into core industrial names, invalidating our bullish call.