Big Tech Capex Pushes S&P 500 to Modest 0.3% Gain

We expect the S&P 500 to close up about 0.3% on Thursday, November 5, 2026 as sustained enterprise technology spending and steady industrial earnings offset mild softening in crude oil.

Enterprise technology demand remains the primary anchor for equities. IBM (IBM) is booking steady software contracts through its watsonx platform, showing that businesses are allocating real money to software automation rather than running trial pilots. At the hardware foundation, Nvidia (NVDA) continues to see full capacity utilization across major cloud platforms. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) recently reaffirmed cloud infrastructure outlays totaling more than $140 billion combined for the fiscal period. Because corporate technology spending is driven by contract commitments rather than day-to-day retail mood, it provides a stable floor for high-capitalization software. We expect technology stocks to gain roughly 0.5% during the session.

Industrial earnings are reinforcing that floor with predictable backlogs. Cummins (CMI) reports earnings before the bell, backed by sustained orders for heavy-duty commercial engines and power generation units. Fleet operators are not canceling equipment orders; they are executing planned replacements. At the same time, electrical equipment suppliers are benefiting from grid connections for commercial facilities. Regulated utilities like Duke Energy (DUK) and The Southern Company (SO) continue to report growing commercial power delivery volumes in their operational regions. This industrial and utility revenue protects traditional equity sectors from sudden downturns, even as consumer goods companies report more selective household spending.

Energy remains the single drag on broad index advances. ConocoPhillips (COP), Devon Energy (DVN), and EOG Resources (EOG) face lower realized wholesale prices compared to the prior calendar year. Crude oil has shed roughly 13.9% over recent weeks, limiting profit margin expansion for upstream drillers. However, capital discipline keeps these producers solvent. Instead of adding speculative drill rigs, companies like ConocoPhillips (COP) are directing free cash flow into dividend payouts and balance sheet protection. This prevents an outright collapse in energy sector valuations and caps overall index drag at less than 0.1%.

What would change our mind is an unexpected jump in weekly initial jobless claims above 235,000 paired with an abrupt guidance downgrade from enterprise software providers. If corporate software bookings pause or labor market weakness accelerates, the S&P 500 would likely fall through its recent trading range and lose 0.8% or more.